{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}V:\Demand & Supply\Party policy change\Data\log_analysis.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}19 May 2017, 16:19:09
{txt}
{com}. 
. * load data
. use data_sounds_like_moving.dta, clear
{txt}(Manifesto Project Dataset Version 2016a. Please type "notes" for more details)

{com}. 
. *******************************************************************************
. *** Magnitude of party policy shifts (Table 1)
. *******************************************************************************
. 
. regress abs_pure_polchange ///
>           i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.abs_pure_polchange_lag ///
>           c.votechange_lag ///    
>           i.country ,cluster(party)               

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(12, 56)         =  {res}     3.61
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0005
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1346
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 1.0944

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}abs_pure_p~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3991009{col 26}{space 2} .1596477{col 37}{space 1}    2.50{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4} .0792881{col 67}{space 3} .7189137
{txt}abs_pure_p~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1080367{col 26}{space 2} .0884428{col 37}{space 1}    1.22{col 46}{space 3}0.227{col 54}{space 4}-.0691355{col 67}{space 3} .2852089
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0009173{col 26}{space 2} .0116043{col 37}{space 1}    0.08{col 46}{space 3}0.937{col 54}{space 4} -.022329{col 67}{space 3} .0241636
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2736947{col 26}{space 2} .2546493{col 37}{space 1}    1.07{col 46}{space 3}0.287{col 54}{space 4}-.2364292{col 67}{space 3} .7838187
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.281005{col 26}{space 2} .6240604{col 37}{space 1}    2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.045{col 54}{space 4} .0308616{col 67}{space 3} 2.531148
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3889627{col 26}{space 2} .2584507{col 37}{space 1}    1.50{col 46}{space 3}0.138{col 54}{space 4}-.1287764{col 67}{space 3} .9067017
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0646191{col 26}{space 2} .2482703{col 37}{space 1}    0.26{col 46}{space 3}0.796{col 54}{space 4} -.432726{col 67}{space 3} .5619643
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0689297{col 26}{space 2} .2983722{col 37}{space 1}    0.23{col 46}{space 3}0.818{col 54}{space 4}-.5287818{col 67}{space 3} .6666411
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1319456{col 26}{space 2} .2622577{col 37}{space 1}    0.50{col 46}{space 3}0.617{col 54}{space 4}-.3934198{col 67}{space 3} .6573109
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0928547{col 26}{space 2} .2535207{col 37}{space 1}    0.37{col 46}{space 3}0.716{col 54}{space 4}-.4150082{col 67}{space 3} .6007176
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .190454{col 26}{space 2} .2470549{col 37}{space 1}    0.77{col 46}{space 3}0.444{col 54}{space 4}-.3044564{col 67}{space 3} .6853644
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1061191{col 26}{space 2} .2568511{col 37}{space 1}    0.41{col 46}{space 3}0.681{col 54}{space 4}-.4084154{col 67}{space 3} .6206537
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .324073{col 26}{space 2} .2699217{col 37}{space 1}    1.20{col 46}{space 3}0.235{col 54}{space 4}-.2166451{col 67}{space 3} .8647912
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model1 
{txt}
{com}. 
. regress abs_pure_salchange ///
>           i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.abs_pure_salchange_lag  ///
>           c.votechange_lag ///    
>           i.country ,cluster(party)               

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(12, 56)         =  {res}    10.81
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1568
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 4.1762

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}abs_pure_s~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8791301{col 26}{space 2}  .854277{col 37}{space 1}    1.03{col 46}{space 3}0.308{col 54}{space 4}-.8321923{col 67}{space 3} 2.590453
{txt}abs_pure_s~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1160276{col 26}{space 2} .0508414{col 37}{space 1}    2.28{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4}   .01418{col 67}{space 3} .2178752
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0425031{col 26}{space 2} .0522969{col 37}{space 1}    0.81{col 46}{space 3}0.420{col 54}{space 4}-.0622602{col 67}{space 3} .1472664
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0704977{col 26}{space 2} 1.691845{col 37}{space 1}    0.04{col 46}{space 3}0.967{col 54}{space 4}-3.318676{col 67}{space 3} 3.459671
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.080786{col 26}{space 2} 2.232896{col 37}{space 1}    0.48{col 46}{space 3}0.630{col 54}{space 4}-3.392242{col 67}{space 3} 5.553814
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.336382{col 26}{space 2} 1.511012{col 37}{space 1}   -0.88{col 46}{space 3}0.380{col 54}{space 4}-4.363303{col 67}{space 3} 1.690538
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.364137{col 26}{space 2} 1.617881{col 37}{space 1}   -2.08{col 46}{space 3}0.042{col 54}{space 4}-6.605142{col 67}{space 3}-.1231331
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.245365{col 26}{space 2} 1.509122{col 37}{space 1}   -0.83{col 46}{space 3}0.413{col 54}{space 4}  -4.2685{col 67}{space 3} 1.777769
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.770218{col 26}{space 2} 1.551502{col 37}{space 1}   -1.14{col 46}{space 3}0.259{col 54}{space 4}-4.878249{col 67}{space 3} 1.337814
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6717295{col 26}{space 2}  2.41057{col 37}{space 1}    0.28{col 46}{space 3}0.782{col 54}{space 4}-4.157222{col 67}{space 3} 5.500681
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -3.74148{col 26}{space 2} 1.479035{col 37}{space 1}   -2.53{col 46}{space 3}0.014{col 54}{space 4}-6.704344{col 67}{space 3}-.7786169
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.681617{col 26}{space 2} 1.517201{col 37}{space 1}   -1.11{col 46}{space 3}0.272{col 54}{space 4}-4.720936{col 67}{space 3} 1.357702
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 4.469853{col 26}{space 2} 1.818017{col 37}{space 1}    2.46{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4} .8279272{col 67}{space 3}  8.11178
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model2 
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab model1 model2    using "Table_1.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change (abs)" "Emphasis-based policy change (abs)") ///
>                                                 scalar(ll) nogaps 
{res}{txt}(note: file Table_1.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Table_1.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *******************************************************************************
. *** Explaining why and how parties adapt their positions to rival parties (Table 2)
. *******************************************************************************
. regress pure_polchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_polchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.unemp_change ///
>           i.country ,cluster(party)               

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(17, 56)         =  {res}    12.72
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.2680
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 1.3742

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_polch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0874369{col 26}{space 2} .1280845{col 37}{space 1}   -0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.498{col 54}{space 4} -.344021{col 67}{space 3} .1691473
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2037193{col 26}{space 2} .1337756{col 37}{space 1}   -1.52{col 46}{space 3}0.133{col 54}{space 4}-.4717041{col 67}{space 3} .0642655
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3364138{col 26}{space 2} .1389215{col 37}{space 1}    2.42{col 46}{space 3}0.019{col 54}{space 4} .0581206{col 67}{space 3}  .614707
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .459452{col 26}{space 2} .5829947{col 37}{space 1}    0.79{col 46}{space 3}0.434{col 54}{space 4}-.7084267{col 67}{space 3} 1.627331
{txt}pure_polch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2602942{col 26}{space 2} .0449122{col 37}{space 1}   -5.80{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3502641{col 67}{space 3}-.1703243
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0091408{col 26}{space 2}  .018895{col 37}{space 1}   -0.48{col 46}{space 3}0.630{col 54}{space 4}-.0469921{col 67}{space 3} .0287105
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_polch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0416705{col 26}{space 2} .0150792{col 37}{space 1}    2.76{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .0114633{col 67}{space 3} .0718777
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1206862{col 26}{space 2} .0425343{col 37}{space 1}    2.84{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4} .0354797{col 67}{space 3} .2058926
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4912016{col 26}{space 2} .2560668{col 37}{space 1}   -1.92{col 46}{space 3}0.060{col 54}{space 4}-1.004165{col 67}{space 3} .0217619
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2738802{col 26}{space 2} .5619068{col 37}{space 1}    0.49{col 46}{space 3}0.628{col 54}{space 4}-.8517543{col 67}{space 3} 1.399515
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1278361{col 26}{space 2}  .254805{col 37}{space 1}   -0.50{col 46}{space 3}0.618{col 54}{space 4}-.6382718{col 67}{space 3} .3825996
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1724002{col 26}{space 2} .2534633{col 37}{space 1}   -0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.499{col 54}{space 4}-.6801483{col 67}{space 3} .3353478
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6459879{col 26}{space 2} .3198098{col 37}{space 1}   -2.02{col 46}{space 3}0.048{col 54}{space 4}-1.286644{col 67}{space 3}-.0053319
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1397414{col 26}{space 2} .2809193{col 37}{space 1}   -0.50{col 46}{space 3}0.621{col 54}{space 4}-.7024905{col 67}{space 3} .4230077
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9352452{col 26}{space 2} .2824422{col 37}{space 1}   -3.31{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-1.501045{col 67}{space 3}-.3694455
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.587359{col 26}{space 2} .4033841{col 37}{space 1}   -1.46{col 46}{space 3}0.151{col 54}{space 4}-1.395435{col 67}{space 3} .2207165
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1896979{col 26}{space 2} .2290691{col 37}{space 1}   -0.83{col 46}{space 3}0.411{col 54}{space 4}-.6485785{col 67}{space 3} .2691827
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5526314{col 26}{space 2} .2578614{col 37}{space 1}    2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.036{col 54}{space 4}  .036073{col 67}{space 3}  1.06919
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model1
{txt}
{com}. 
. regress pure_salchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_salchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.unemp_change  ///
>           i.country , cluster(party)

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(17, 56)         =  {res}     4.92
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1312
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 5.9915

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_salch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.223826{col 26}{space 2} .4980708{col 37}{space 1}    2.46{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4}   .22607{col 67}{space 3} 2.221582
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.150342{col 26}{space 2} .7644231{col 37}{space 1}    1.50{col 46}{space 3}0.138{col 54}{space 4}-.3809815{col 67}{space 3} 2.681666
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.324143{col 26}{space 2}  .682423{col 37}{space 1}   -1.94{col 46}{space 3}0.057{col 54}{space 4}-2.691201{col 67}{space 3} .0429143
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.369597{col 26}{space 2} 1.573852{col 37}{space 1}   -3.41{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-8.522402{col 67}{space 3}-2.216792
{txt}pure_salch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1921959{col 26}{space 2} .0545336{col 37}{space 1}   -3.52{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.3014398{col 67}{space 3}-.0829521
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1346035{col 26}{space 2} .0736397{col 37}{space 1}    1.83{col 46}{space 3}0.073{col 54}{space 4}-.0129145{col 67}{space 3} .2821214
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_salch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0062214{col 26}{space 2}  .015857{col 37}{space 1}    0.39{col 46}{space 3}0.696{col 54}{space 4} -.025544{col 67}{space 3} .0379869
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1029532{col 26}{space 2} .1583974{col 37}{space 1}    0.65{col 46}{space 3}0.518{col 54}{space 4} -.214355{col 67}{space 3} .4202613
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.822203{col 26}{space 2} 1.971143{col 37}{space 1}    1.43{col 46}{space 3}0.158{col 54}{space 4}-1.126471{col 67}{space 3} 6.770878
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7247208{col 26}{space 2} 2.224778{col 37}{space 1}    0.33{col 46}{space 3}0.746{col 54}{space 4}-3.732045{col 67}{space 3} 5.181487
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.049726{col 26}{space 2} 1.990208{col 37}{space 1}    0.53{col 46}{space 3}0.600{col 54}{space 4}-2.937141{col 67}{space 3} 5.036592
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.165036{col 26}{space 2} 1.933722{col 37}{space 1}    1.64{col 46}{space 3}0.107{col 54}{space 4}-.7086745{col 67}{space 3} 7.038747
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  3.70964{col 26}{space 2} 2.006238{col 37}{space 1}    1.85{col 46}{space 3}0.070{col 54}{space 4}-.3093375{col 67}{space 3} 7.728618
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9670639{col 26}{space 2} 2.177324{col 37}{space 1}    0.44{col 46}{space 3}0.659{col 54}{space 4} -3.39464{col 67}{space 3} 5.328768
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.399893{col 26}{space 2} 2.509611{col 37}{space 1}   -1.75{col 46}{space 3}0.085{col 54}{space 4}-9.427247{col 67}{space 3} .6274618
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.900212{col 26}{space 2} 1.851519{col 37}{space 1}    1.03{col 46}{space 3}0.309{col 54}{space 4}-1.808826{col 67}{space 3} 5.609251
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.644905{col 26}{space 2} 1.896442{col 37}{space 1}    0.87{col 46}{space 3}0.389{col 54}{space 4}-2.154124{col 67}{space 3} 5.443934
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -4.73679{col 26}{space 2} 2.060711{col 37}{space 1}   -2.30{col 46}{space 3}0.025{col 54}{space 4}-8.864891{col 67}{space 3}-.6086889
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model2
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab model1  model2  using "Table_2.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 scalar(ll) nogaps 
{res}{txt}(note: file Table_2.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Table_2.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
. *** ME plots (Figure 2)
. *****************************************************************************
. 
. * Model 1                               
. gen x=_n in 1/2
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen effect=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen upper=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen lower=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. est restore model1        
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model1:model1} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred_d=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~n {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0874369{col 26}{space 2} .1280845{col 37}{space 1}   -0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.498{col 54}{space 4} -.344021{col 67}{space 3} .1691473
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2489769{col 26}{space 2}  .084872{col 37}{space 1}    2.93{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} .0789578{col 67}{space 3}  .418996
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. matrix b=r(b)
{txt}
{com}. matrix V=r(V)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list b
{res}
{txt}b[1,2]
     systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
               1.            2.
             _at           _at
r1 {res}   -.08743686     .24897691
{reset}
{com}. matrix list V
{res}
{txt}symmetric V[2,2]
                          systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
                                    1.            2.
                                  _at           _at
systemic_shift_ln:1._at {res}    .01640565
{txt}systemic_shift_ln:2._at {res}    .00215486     .00720326
{reset}
{com}. replace effect=b[1,1]                                     if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,1] + 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,1] - 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. replace effect=b[1,2]                                     if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,2] + 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,2] - 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. label define Hyp   1 "Activist-dominated party"  2 "Leader-dominated party"  
{txt}
{com}.                         
. label values x  Hyp
{txt}
{com}. sort x
{txt}
{com}. eclplot effect lower upper x in 1/2, ///
>         rplottype(rspike) ///
>         estopts(msymbol(circle) mcolor(black)) ///
>         ciopts(lcolor(black))   ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(0.8 2.2)) ///
>         xscale(range(-0.01 0.03)) ///
>     ylabel(1 2, valuelabel labsize(small) notick nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-0.50(0.1)0.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: Opinion-based policy change (Model 1)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Marginal effect",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(2) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         xline(0, lcolor(black)) ///
>         horizontal 
{res}{txt}
{com}.         
. graph export fig2a.tif, replace  width(4800) 
{txt}(note: file fig2a.tif not found)
(file fig2a.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}. 
. drop x effect upper lower 
{txt}
{com}. matrix drop _all
{txt}
{com}. label drop Hyp                                          
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Model 2                               
. gen x=_n in 1/2
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen effect=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen upper=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen lower=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. est restore model2  
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model2:model2} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred_d=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~n {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.223826{col 26}{space 2} .4980708{col 37}{space 1}    2.46{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4}   .22607{col 67}{space 3} 2.221582
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1003174{col 26}{space 2} .3920354{col 37}{space 1}   -0.26{col 46}{space 3}0.799{col 54}{space 4}-.8856587{col 67}{space 3} .6850239
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. matrix b=r(b)
{txt}
{com}. matrix V=r(V)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list b
{res}
{txt}b[1,2]
     systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
               1.            2.
             _at           _at
r1 {res}    1.2238258    -.10031738
{reset}
{com}. matrix list V
{res}
{txt}symmetric V[2,2]
                          systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
                                    1.            2.
                                  _at           _at
systemic_shift_ln:1._at {res}    .24807456
{txt}systemic_shift_ln:2._at {res}   -.03196739     .15369176
{reset}
{com}. replace effect=b[1,1]                                     if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,1] + 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,1] - 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. replace effect=b[1,2]                                     if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,2] + 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,2] - 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. label define Hyp   1 "Activist-dominated party"  2 "Leader-dominated party"  
{txt}
{com}.                         
. label values x  Hyp
{txt}
{com}. sort x
{txt}
{com}. eclplot effect lower upper x in 1/2, ///
>         rplottype(rspike) ///
>         estopts(msymbol(circle) mcolor(black)) ///
>         ciopts(lcolor(black))   ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(0.8 2.2)) ///
>         xscale(range(-2 2)) ///
>     ylabel(1 2, valuelabel labsize(small) notick nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-2.5(0.5)2.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: Emphasis-based policy change (Model 2)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Marginal effect",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(2) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         xline(0, lcolor(black)) ///
>         horizontal 
{res}{txt}
{com}.         
. graph export fig2b.tif, replace  width(4800) 
{txt}(note: file fig2b.tif not found)
(file fig2b.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}. 
. drop x effect upper lower 
{txt}
{com}. matrix drop _all
{txt}
{com}. label drop Hyp                  
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
. *** Appendix B: Sample & Descriptives
. *****************************************************************************
. 
. * Tablbe B.2
. preserve
{txt}
{com}. bysort country: gen no_shifts=_N
{txt}
{com}. gen year=floor(date/100)
{txt}
{com}. bysort country: egen min_date=min(year)
{txt}
{com}. bysort country: egen max_date=max(year)
{txt}
{com}. bysort party: gen p_id=1 if _n==1
{txt}(204 missing values generated)

{com}. bysort country: egen p_count=total(p_id)
{txt}
{com}. 
. keep country min_date max_date no_shifts  p_count
{txt}
{com}. collapse  min_date max_date no_shifts p_count, by(country)
{txt}
{com}. list country min_date max_date p_count no_shifts  
{txt}
     {c TLC}{hline 16}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 9}{c -}{hline 10}{c TRC}
     {c |} {res}       country   min_date   max_date   p_count   no_shi~s {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 16}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 9}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
  1. {c |} {res}        sweden       1998       2002         7         14 {txt}{c |}
  2. {c |} {res}       denmark       1977       2001         9         52 {txt}{c |}
  3. {c |} {res}       finland       1995       2003         7         15 {txt}{c |}
  4. {c |} {res}       belgium       1977       2003        10         61 {txt}{c |}
  5. {c |} {res}   netherlands       1977       2002         4         29 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 16}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 9}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
  6. {c |} {res}        france       1978       2002         4         21 {txt}{c |}
  7. {c |} {res}       germany       1983       2002         4         22 {txt}{c |}
  8. {c |} {res}       austria       1999       2002         4          7 {txt}{c |}
  9. {c |} {res}united kingdom       1979       2001         4         16 {txt}{c |}
 10. {c |} {res}       ireland       1977       2002         4         24 {txt}{c |}
     {c BLC}{hline 16}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 9}{c -}{hline 10}{c BRC}

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *Table B.3
. sum   pure_polchange pure_polchange_lag pure_salchange pure_salchange_lag ///
>       abs_pure_polchange abs_pure_polchange_lag ///
>           abs_pure_salchange abs_pure_salchange_lag ///
>           systemic_shift_ln dmvpt votechange_lag unemp_change   

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
pure_polch~e {c |}{res}        261    .0451338     1.55277  -5.900295   9.401094
{txt}pure_polch~g {c |}{res}        261    .2108984    1.774752  -5.900295   9.900885
{txt}pure_salch~e {c |}{res}        261    -1.51717    6.214423  -26.28079   17.12269
{txt}pure_salch~g {c |}{res}        261   -1.503697    7.605795  -41.04317   22.13817
{txt}abs_pure_p~e {c |}{res}        261    1.043438    1.148995          0   9.401094
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
abs_pure_p~g {c |}{res}        261     1.13361    1.379992          0   9.900885
{txt}abs_pure_s~e {c |}{res}        261    4.595569    4.441759   .0210211   26.28079
{txt}abs_pure_s~g {c |}{res}        261    5.464145    5.490556   .0287664   41.04317
{txt}systemic_s~n {c |}{res}        261     .010557    1.273681  -4.554278   4.189778
{txt}{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{res}        261   -.0536904    .1781183   -.433041   .3884215
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
votechange~g {c |}{res}        261    -.246341    4.061174    -17.517     13.781
{txt}unemp_change {c |}{res}        261    .0578545    2.674636       -5.5        8.8
{txt}
{com}. tab leadercentred_d     

{txt}Leader-cent {c |}
  red party {c |}
 org (dich) {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}         45       17.24       17.24
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}        216       82.76      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        261      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
. *** Appendix C: Alternative economic indicators
. *****************************************************************************
. regress pure_polchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_polchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.oecd_mean_growth  ///
>           i.country,cluster(party)                

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(17, 56)         =  {res}    14.18
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.2693
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res}  1.373

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_polch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1788531{col 26}{space 2} .1540714{col 37}{space 1}   -1.16{col 46}{space 3}0.251{col 54}{space 4}-.4874951{col 67}{space 3} .1297889
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1993923{col 26}{space 2} .1393417{col 37}{space 1}   -1.43{col 46}{space 3}0.158{col 54}{space 4}-.4785273{col 67}{space 3} .0797426
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4029941{col 26}{space 2} .1539867{col 37}{space 1}    2.62{col 46}{space 3}0.011{col 54}{space 4} .0945216{col 67}{space 3} .7114666
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3143978{col 26}{space 2} .5895764{col 37}{space 1}    0.53{col 46}{space 3}0.596{col 54}{space 4}-.8666655{col 67}{space 3} 1.495461
{txt}pure_polch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2747056{col 26}{space 2} .0404607{col 37}{space 1}   -6.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3557581{col 67}{space 3} -.193653
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.007933{col 26}{space 2} .0164119{col 37}{space 1}   -0.48{col 46}{space 3}0.631{col 54}{space 4}-.0408101{col 67}{space 3} .0249441
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_polch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0387205{col 26}{space 2} .0169234{col 37}{space 1}    2.29{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4} .0048189{col 67}{space 3}  .072622
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
oecd_mean_~h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.026293{col 26}{space 2}  .310192{col 37}{space 1}   -3.31{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-1.647682{col 67}{space 3}-.4049036
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5723386{col 26}{space 2}  .249441{col 37}{space 1}   -2.29{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4}-1.072029{col 67}{space 3}-.0726482
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3887612{col 26}{space 2} .5770165{col 37}{space 1}    0.67{col 46}{space 3}0.503{col 54}{space 4}-.7671416{col 67}{space 3} 1.544664
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1391111{col 26}{space 2} .2446033{col 37}{space 1}   -0.57{col 46}{space 3}0.572{col 54}{space 4}-.6291104{col 67}{space 3} .3508881
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2137989{col 26}{space 2} .2413471{col 37}{space 1}   -0.89{col 46}{space 3}0.379{col 54}{space 4}-.6972752{col 67}{space 3} .2696773
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5345359{col 26}{space 2}  .293082{col 37}{space 1}   -1.82{col 46}{space 3}0.074{col 54}{space 4} -1.12165{col 67}{space 3} .0525778
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1710019{col 26}{space 2} .2786958{col 37}{space 1}   -0.61{col 46}{space 3}0.542{col 54}{space 4}-.7292966{col 67}{space 3} .3872929
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9852228{col 26}{space 2}  .284863{col 37}{space 1}   -3.46{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-1.555872{col 67}{space 3}-.4145736
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5190908{col 26}{space 2} .3685667{col 37}{space 1}   -1.41{col 46}{space 3}0.165{col 54}{space 4}-1.257419{col 67}{space 3}  .219237
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4017264{col 26}{space 2} .3147387{col 37}{space 1}    1.28{col 46}{space 3}0.207{col 54}{space 4}-.2287709{col 67}{space 3} 1.032224
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.159536{col 26}{space 2} .3308425{col 37}{space 1}    3.50{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .4967791{col 67}{space 3} 1.822294
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model1_growth 
{txt}
{com}. 
. regress pure_salchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_salchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.oecd_mean_growth  ///
>           i.country, cluster(party)

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(17, 56)         =  {res}     4.97
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1318
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 5.9896

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_salch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.121049{col 26}{space 2} .5174436{col 37}{space 1}    2.17{col 46}{space 3}0.035{col 54}{space 4} .0844853{col 67}{space 3} 2.157613
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.154313{col 26}{space 2} .7571804{col 37}{space 1}    1.52{col 46}{space 3}0.133{col 54}{space 4}-.3625015{col 67}{space 3} 2.671128
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.257858{col 26}{space 2}  .694246{col 37}{space 1}   -1.81{col 46}{space 3}0.075{col 54}{space 4}  -2.6486{col 67}{space 3} .1328842
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.466551{col 26}{space 2} 1.681609{col 37}{space 1}   -3.25{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-8.835218{col 67}{space 3}-2.097883
{txt}pure_salch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1897281{col 26}{space 2} .0553152{col 37}{space 1}   -3.43{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.3005378{col 67}{space 3}-.0789183
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1354891{col 26}{space 2} .0743193{col 37}{space 1}    1.82{col 46}{space 3}0.074{col 54}{space 4}-.0133904{col 67}{space 3} .2843686
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_salch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .007043{col 26}{space 2} .0152366{col 37}{space 1}    0.46{col 46}{space 3}0.646{col 54}{space 4}-.0234795{col 67}{space 3} .0375655
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
oecd_mean_~h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.012815{col 26}{space 2} 1.604639{col 37}{space 1}   -0.63{col 46}{space 3}0.530{col 54}{space 4}-4.227292{col 67}{space 3} 2.201663
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.725152{col 26}{space 2} 2.013781{col 37}{space 1}    1.35{col 46}{space 3}0.181{col 54}{space 4}-1.308936{col 67}{space 3} 6.759241
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .845328{col 26}{space 2} 2.207963{col 37}{space 1}    0.38{col 46}{space 3}0.703{col 54}{space 4}-3.577754{col 67}{space 3}  5.26841
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.01474{col 26}{space 2} 2.018943{col 37}{space 1}    0.50{col 46}{space 3}0.617{col 54}{space 4} -3.02969{col 67}{space 3} 5.059169
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.105097{col 26}{space 2} 1.956481{col 37}{space 1}    1.59{col 46}{space 3}0.118{col 54}{space 4} -.814205{col 67}{space 3} 7.024399
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.788136{col 26}{space 2}  2.02703{col 37}{space 1}    1.87{col 46}{space 3}0.067{col 54}{space 4}-.2724932{col 67}{space 3} 7.848764
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9072834{col 26}{space 2} 2.204098{col 37}{space 1}    0.41{col 46}{space 3}0.682{col 54}{space 4}-3.508056{col 67}{space 3} 5.322623
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.459805{col 26}{space 2} 2.522628{col 37}{space 1}   -1.77{col 46}{space 3}0.083{col 54}{space 4}-9.513236{col 67}{space 3} .5936262
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.93199{col 26}{space 2} 1.845084{col 37}{space 1}    1.05{col 46}{space 3}0.300{col 54}{space 4}-1.764157{col 67}{space 3} 5.628138
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.228542{col 26}{space 2} 2.114288{col 37}{space 1}    1.05{col 46}{space 3}0.296{col 54}{space 4}-2.006885{col 67}{space 3} 6.463969
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.117777{col 26}{space 2} 2.448116{col 37}{space 1}   -1.68{col 46}{space 3}0.098{col 54}{space 4}-9.021941{col 67}{space 3} .7863882
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model2_growth 
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab model1_growth  model2_growth  using "Appendix_C_1.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 scalar(ll) nogaps
{res}{txt}(note: file Appendix_C_1.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Appendix_C_1.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * OLS with cluster, lagged DV (Abou-Chadi et al.)
. regress pure_polchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_polchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.wb_infl_conprice  ///
>           i.country,cluster(party)                

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(17, 56)         =  {res}     8.74
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.2364
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 1.4035

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_polch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}   .02183{col 26}{space 2}   .15338{col 37}{space 1}    0.14{col 46}{space 3}0.887{col 54}{space 4}-.2854271{col 67}{space 3} .3290871
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2050589{col 26}{space 2} .1428242{col 37}{space 1}   -1.44{col 46}{space 3}0.157{col 54}{space 4}-.4911701{col 67}{space 3} .0810524
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3244583{col 26}{space 2}  .167689{col 37}{space 1}    1.93{col 46}{space 3}0.058{col 54}{space 4}-.0114631{col 67}{space 3} .6603797
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0961248{col 26}{space 2} .5598763{col 37}{space 1}    0.17{col 46}{space 3}0.864{col 54}{space 4}-1.025442{col 67}{space 3} 1.217692
{txt}pure_polch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  -.28561{col 26}{space 2} .0429168{col 37}{space 1}   -6.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3715827{col 67}{space 3}-.1996373
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0079062{col 26}{space 2} .0180534{col 37}{space 1}   -0.44{col 46}{space 3}0.663{col 54}{space 4}-.0440716{col 67}{space 3} .0282592
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_polch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0423492{col 26}{space 2} .0174199{col 37}{space 1}    2.43{col 46}{space 3}0.018{col 54}{space 4}  .007453{col 67}{space 3} .0772454
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
wb_infl_co~e {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0206942{col 26}{space 2}  .023535{col 37}{space 1}    0.88{col 46}{space 3}0.383{col 54}{space 4}-.0264522{col 67}{space 3} .0678405
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4605106{col 26}{space 2} .2924097{col 37}{space 1}   -1.57{col 46}{space 3}0.121{col 54}{space 4}-1.046278{col 67}{space 3} .1252565
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2970646{col 26}{space 2} .5857124{col 37}{space 1}    0.51{col 46}{space 3}0.614{col 54}{space 4}-.8762583{col 67}{space 3} 1.470388
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0124693{col 26}{space 2} .2539974{col 37}{space 1}   -0.05{col 46}{space 3}0.961{col 54}{space 4}-.5212871{col 67}{space 3} .4963486
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.103438{col 26}{space 2} .2568868{col 37}{space 1}   -0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.689{col 54}{space 4} -.618044{col 67}{space 3} .4111681
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5067316{col 26}{space 2} .3304026{col 37}{space 1}   -1.53{col 46}{space 3}0.131{col 54}{space 4}-1.168608{col 67}{space 3} .1551444
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0053585{col 26}{space 2} .2845288{col 37}{space 1}    0.02{col 46}{space 3}0.985{col 54}{space 4}-.5646211{col 67}{space 3} .5753381
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7454559{col 26}{space 2} .2907659{col 37}{space 1}   -2.56{col 46}{space 3}0.013{col 54}{space 4} -1.32793{col 67}{space 3}-.1629818
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5090131{col 26}{space 2} .3645958{col 37}{space 1}   -1.40{col 46}{space 3}0.168{col 54}{space 4}-1.239386{col 67}{space 3}   .22136
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3333538{col 26}{space 2} .2795646{col 37}{space 1}   -1.19{col 46}{space 3}0.238{col 54}{space 4}-.8933891{col 67}{space 3} .2266814
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4034328{col 26}{space 2} .2610154{col 37}{space 1}    1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.128{col 54}{space 4}-.1194438{col 67}{space 3} .9263094
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model1_infl
{txt}
{com}. 
. regress pure_salchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_salchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.wb_infl_conprice  ///
>           i.country, cluster(party)

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(17, 56)         =  {res}     4.59
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1297
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 5.9968

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_salch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.336468{col 26}{space 2} .4974007{col 37}{space 1}    2.69{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4} .3400549{col 67}{space 3} 2.332881
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.148788{col 26}{space 2} .7612447{col 37}{space 1}    1.51{col 46}{space 3}0.137{col 54}{space 4}-.3761679{col 67}{space 3} 2.673745
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.349735{col 26}{space 2} .6593441{col 37}{space 1}   -2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.045{col 54}{space 4} -2.67056{col 67}{space 3}-.0289105
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.688323{col 26}{space 2} 1.735823{col 37}{space 1}   -3.28{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-9.165595{col 67}{space 3}-2.211052
{txt}pure_salch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1919345{col 26}{space 2} .0550428{col 37}{space 1}   -3.49{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.3021984{col 67}{space 3}-.0816706
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1362221{col 26}{space 2} .0740371{col 37}{space 1}    1.84{col 46}{space 3}0.071{col 54}{space 4} -.012092{col 67}{space 3} .2845363
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_salch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .006336{col 26}{space 2}   .01578{col 37}{space 1}    0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.690{col 54}{space 4}-.0252751{col 67}{space 3}  .037947
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
wb_infl_co~e {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0068071{col 26}{space 2} .1170101{col 37}{space 1}    0.06{col 46}{space 3}0.954{col 54}{space 4}-.2275922{col 67}{space 3} .2412065
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.892212{col 26}{space 2} 2.008162{col 37}{space 1}    1.44{col 46}{space 3}0.155{col 54}{space 4}-1.130619{col 67}{space 3} 6.915044
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7129281{col 26}{space 2}  2.21651{col 37}{space 1}    0.32{col 46}{space 3}0.749{col 54}{space 4}-3.727275{col 67}{space 3} 5.153131
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.164954{col 26}{space 2} 2.016136{col 37}{space 1}    0.58{col 46}{space 3}0.566{col 54}{space 4}-2.873852{col 67}{space 3}  5.20376
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.239594{col 26}{space 2} 1.953531{col 37}{space 1}    1.66{col 46}{space 3}0.103{col 54}{space 4}-.6737998{col 67}{space 3} 7.152987
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  3.85987{col 26}{space 2}  2.05695{col 37}{space 1}    1.88{col 46}{space 3}0.066{col 54}{space 4}-.2606965{col 67}{space 3} 7.980436
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.090991{col 26}{space 2} 2.161063{col 37}{space 1}    0.50{col 46}{space 3}0.616{col 54}{space 4}-3.238138{col 67}{space 3} 5.420121
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.227104{col 26}{space 2} 2.496426{col 37}{space 1}   -1.69{col 46}{space 3}0.096{col 54}{space 4}-9.228045{col 67}{space 3} .7738378
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.005737{col 26}{space 2} 1.920978{col 37}{space 1}    1.04{col 46}{space 3}0.301{col 54}{space 4}-1.842445{col 67}{space 3} 5.853919
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.571516{col 26}{space 2} 2.015745{col 37}{space 1}    0.78{col 46}{space 3}0.439{col 54}{space 4}-2.466507{col 67}{space 3} 5.609539
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -4.84837{col 26}{space 2}   2.0538{col 37}{space 1}   -2.36{col 46}{space 3}0.022{col 54}{space 4}-8.962626{col 67}{space 3}-.7341143
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model2_infl
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab  model1_infl  model2_infl  using "Appendix_C_2.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 scalar(ll) nogaps
{res}{txt}(note: file Appendix_C_2.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Appendix_C_2.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
. *** Appendix D: Alternative model specifications
. *****************************************************************************
.         
. *** SE clustered by election
. regress abs_pure_polchange ///
>           i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.abs_pure_polchange_lag ///
>           c.votechange_lag ///    
>           i.country, cluster(elec_group) 

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(12, 61)         =  {res}     2.70
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0055
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1346
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 1.0944

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:62} clusters in elec_group)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}abs_pure_p~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3991009{col 26}{space 2} .1467168{col 37}{space 1}    2.72{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .1057224{col 67}{space 3} .6924793
{txt}abs_pure_p~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1080367{col 26}{space 2} .0546356{col 37}{space 1}    1.98{col 46}{space 3}0.053{col 54}{space 4}-.0012138{col 67}{space 3} .2172873
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0009173{col 26}{space 2} .0121899{col 37}{space 1}    0.08{col 46}{space 3}0.940{col 54}{space 4}-.0234579{col 67}{space 3} .0252924
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2736947{col 26}{space 2} .3155451{col 37}{space 1}    0.87{col 46}{space 3}0.389{col 54}{space 4}-.3572768{col 67}{space 3} .9046663
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.281005{col 26}{space 2} .8902977{col 37}{space 1}    1.44{col 46}{space 3}0.155{col 54}{space 4}-.4992555{col 67}{space 3} 3.061265
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3889627{col 26}{space 2} .3502233{col 37}{space 1}    1.11{col 46}{space 3}0.271{col 54}{space 4}-.3113522{col 67}{space 3} 1.089278
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0646191{col 26}{space 2} .3366957{col 37}{space 1}    0.19{col 46}{space 3}0.848{col 54}{space 4}-.6086455{col 67}{space 3} .7378838
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0689297{col 26}{space 2} .3653861{col 37}{space 1}    0.19{col 46}{space 3}0.851{col 54}{space 4}-.6617051{col 67}{space 3} .7995644
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1319456{col 26}{space 2} .3365496{col 37}{space 1}    0.39{col 46}{space 3}0.696{col 54}{space 4}-.5410269{col 67}{space 3}  .804918
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0928547{col 26}{space 2} .4135984{col 37}{space 1}    0.22{col 46}{space 3}0.823{col 54}{space 4}-.7341864{col 67}{space 3} .9198958
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .190454{col 26}{space 2} .3385123{col 37}{space 1}    0.56{col 46}{space 3}0.576{col 54}{space 4}-.4864431{col 67}{space 3} .8673511
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1061191{col 26}{space 2} .3369794{col 37}{space 1}    0.31{col 46}{space 3}0.754{col 54}{space 4}-.5677129{col 67}{space 3} .7799512
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .324073{col 26}{space 2} .3534952{col 37}{space 1}    0.92{col 46}{space 3}0.363{col 54}{space 4}-.3827843{col 67}{space 3}  1.03093
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model1_elec
{txt}
{com}. 
. regress abs_pure_salchange ///
>           i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.abs_pure_salchange_lag  ///
>           c.votechange_lag ///    
>           i.country, cluster(elec_group) 

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(12, 61)         =  {res}    53.54
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1568
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 4.1762

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:62} clusters in elec_group)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}abs_pure_s~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8791301{col 26}{space 2} .8252189{col 37}{space 1}    1.07{col 46}{space 3}0.291{col 54}{space 4}-.7709971{col 67}{space 3} 2.529257
{txt}abs_pure_s~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1160276{col 26}{space 2} .0690584{col 37}{space 1}    1.68{col 46}{space 3}0.098{col 54}{space 4}-.0220632{col 67}{space 3} .2541185
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0425031{col 26}{space 2}  .059041{col 37}{space 1}    0.72{col 46}{space 3}0.474{col 54}{space 4}-.0755567{col 67}{space 3}  .160563
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0704977{col 26}{space 2} .6186679{col 37}{space 1}    0.11{col 46}{space 3}0.910{col 54}{space 4}-1.166605{col 67}{space 3} 1.307601
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.080786{col 26}{space 2} 1.190719{col 37}{space 1}    0.91{col 46}{space 3}0.368{col 54}{space 4}-1.300204{col 67}{space 3} 3.461776
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.336382{col 26}{space 2} 1.002711{col 37}{space 1}   -1.33{col 46}{space 3}0.188{col 54}{space 4}-3.341426{col 67}{space 3} .6686621
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.364137{col 26}{space 2}  .483636{col 37}{space 1}   -6.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-4.331227{col 67}{space 3}-2.397047
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.245365{col 26}{space 2} 1.130674{col 37}{space 1}   -1.10{col 46}{space 3}0.275{col 54}{space 4}-3.506289{col 67}{space 3} 1.015558
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.770218{col 26}{space 2}  .890179{col 37}{space 1}   -1.99{col 46}{space 3}0.051{col 54}{space 4}-3.550241{col 67}{space 3} .0098051
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6717295{col 26}{space 2} 1.669074{col 37}{space 1}    0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.689{col 54}{space 4}-2.665789{col 67}{space 3} 4.009248
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -3.74148{col 26}{space 2} .4985362{col 37}{space 1}   -7.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-4.738365{col 67}{space 3}-2.744595
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.681617{col 26}{space 2}  .674016{col 37}{space 1}   -2.49{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4}-3.029395{col 67}{space 3}-.3338386
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 4.469853{col 26}{space 2} .8459538{col 37}{space 1}    5.28{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.778264{col 67}{space 3} 6.161443
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model2_elec
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab model1_elec  model2_elec    using "Appendix_D_1.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 scalar(ll) nogaps 
{res}{txt}(note: file Appendix_D_1.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Appendix_D_1.rtf"'})

{com}.         
. 
. regress pure_polchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvp    ///   
>           c.pure_polchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.unemp_change ///
>           i.country, cluster(elec_group)                  

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(17, 61)         =  {res}     6.40
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.2680
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 1.3742

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:62} clusters in elec_group)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_polch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0874369{col 26}{space 2} .1829353{col 37}{space 1}   -0.48{col 46}{space 3}0.634{col 54}{space 4}-.4532385{col 67}{space 3} .2783648
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2037193{col 26}{space 2} .1842962{col 37}{space 1}   -1.11{col 46}{space 3}0.273{col 54}{space 4}-.5722423{col 67}{space 3} .1648036
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3364138{col 26}{space 2} .1845496{col 37}{space 1}    1.82{col 46}{space 3}0.073{col 54}{space 4}-.0326159{col 67}{space 3} .7054435
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .459452{col 26}{space 2} .4808076{col 37}{space 1}    0.96{col 46}{space 3}0.343{col 54}{space 4}-.5019823{col 67}{space 3} 1.420886
{txt}pure_polch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2602942{col 26}{space 2} .0716719{col 37}{space 1}   -3.63{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} -.403611{col 67}{space 3}-.1169773
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0091408{col 26}{space 2} .0162131{col 37}{space 1}   -0.56{col 46}{space 3}0.575{col 54}{space 4}-.0415609{col 67}{space 3} .0232793
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_polch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0416705{col 26}{space 2} .0160183{col 37}{space 1}    2.60{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4} .0096398{col 67}{space 3} .0737011
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1206862{col 26}{space 2} .0524674{col 37}{space 1}    2.30{col 46}{space 3}0.025{col 54}{space 4}  .015771{col 67}{space 3} .2256013
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4912016{col 26}{space 2} .2555805{col 37}{space 1}   -1.92{col 46}{space 3}0.059{col 54}{space 4}-1.002266{col 67}{space 3} .0198632
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2738802{col 26}{space 2} 1.040614{col 37}{space 1}    0.26{col 46}{space 3}0.793{col 54}{space 4}-1.806955{col 67}{space 3} 2.354716
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1278361{col 26}{space 2} .3384134{col 37}{space 1}   -0.38{col 46}{space 3}0.707{col 54}{space 4}-.8045355{col 67}{space 3} .5488633
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1724002{col 26}{space 2} .2414434{col 37}{space 1}   -0.71{col 46}{space 3}0.478{col 54}{space 4}-.6551962{col 67}{space 3} .3103958
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6459879{col 26}{space 2} .3193581{col 37}{space 1}   -2.02{col 46}{space 3}0.047{col 54}{space 4}-1.284584{col 67}{space 3} -.007392
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1397414{col 26}{space 2} .3353288{col 37}{space 1}   -0.42{col 46}{space 3}0.678{col 54}{space 4}-.8102727{col 67}{space 3} .5307899
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9352452{col 26}{space 2} .3479632{col 37}{space 1}   -2.69{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}-1.631041{col 67}{space 3}-.2394498
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.587359{col 26}{space 2} .3713891{col 37}{space 1}   -1.58{col 46}{space 3}0.119{col 54}{space 4}-1.329997{col 67}{space 3} .1552793
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1896979{col 26}{space 2} .3691464{col 37}{space 1}   -0.51{col 46}{space 3}0.609{col 54}{space 4}-.9278518{col 67}{space 3} .5484559
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5526314{col 26}{space 2} .1863326{col 37}{space 1}    2.97{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .1800363{col 67}{space 3} .9252266
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model1_elec 
{txt}
{com}. 
. regress pure_salchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_salchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.unemp_change ///
>           i.country, cluster(elec_group)

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(17, 61)         =  {res}     5.20
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1312
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 5.9915

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:62} clusters in elec_group)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_salch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.223826{col 26}{space 2} .6570916{col 37}{space 1}    1.86{col 46}{space 3}0.067{col 54}{space 4}-.0901101{col 67}{space 3} 2.537762
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.150342{col 26}{space 2} .9458861{col 37}{space 1}    1.22{col 46}{space 3}0.229{col 54}{space 4}-.7410742{col 67}{space 3} 3.041758
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.324143{col 26}{space 2}  .693737{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.061{col 54}{space 4}-2.711356{col 67}{space 3} .0630697
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.369597{col 26}{space 2} 1.949643{col 37}{space 1}   -2.75{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4}-9.268148{col 67}{space 3}-1.471046
{txt}pure_salch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1921959{col 26}{space 2} .0528014{col 37}{space 1}   -3.64{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.2977789{col 67}{space 3} -.086613
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1346035{col 26}{space 2} .0819971{col 37}{space 1}    1.64{col 46}{space 3}0.106{col 54}{space 4}-.0293599{col 67}{space 3} .2985668
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_salch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0062214{col 26}{space 2} .0152014{col 37}{space 1}    0.41{col 46}{space 3}0.684{col 54}{space 4}-.0241755{col 67}{space 3} .0366184
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1029532{col 26}{space 2} .1460381{col 37}{space 1}    0.70{col 46}{space 3}0.484{col 54}{space 4} -.189068{col 67}{space 3} .3949743
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.822203{col 26}{space 2} 1.508601{col 37}{space 1}    1.87{col 46}{space 3}0.066{col 54}{space 4}-.1944303{col 67}{space 3} 5.838837
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7247208{col 26}{space 2} 2.568916{col 37}{space 1}    0.28{col 46}{space 3}0.779{col 54}{space 4}-4.412145{col 67}{space 3} 5.861587
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.049726{col 26}{space 2} 1.052142{col 37}{space 1}    1.00{col 46}{space 3}0.322{col 54}{space 4}-1.054163{col 67}{space 3} 3.153614
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.165036{col 26}{space 2} .9470635{col 37}{space 1}    3.34{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} 1.271266{col 67}{space 3} 5.058807
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  3.70964{col 26}{space 2} 1.355234{col 37}{space 1}    2.74{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .9996821{col 67}{space 3} 6.419598
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9670639{col 26}{space 2} 1.360822{col 37}{space 1}    0.71{col 46}{space 3}0.480{col 54}{space 4}-1.754068{col 67}{space 3} 3.688196
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.399893{col 26}{space 2} 1.500628{col 37}{space 1}   -2.93{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4}-7.400584{col 67}{space 3}-1.399202
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.900212{col 26}{space 2} 1.285531{col 37}{space 1}    1.48{col 46}{space 3}0.145{col 54}{space 4} -.670365{col 67}{space 3} 4.470789
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.644905{col 26}{space 2} 1.298062{col 37}{space 1}    1.27{col 46}{space 3}0.210{col 54}{space 4}-.9507307{col 67}{space 3} 4.240541
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -4.73679{col 26}{space 2} .9294834{col 37}{space 1}   -5.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-6.595407{col 67}{space 3}-2.878173
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model2_elec
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. esttab  model1_elec  model2_elec   using "Appendix_D_2.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 scalar(ll) nogaps 
{res}{txt}(note: file Appendix_D_2.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Appendix_D_2.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *  ME plots
. 
. * Model 1                                       
. gen x=_n in 1/2
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen effect=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen upper=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen lower=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. est restore model1_elec   
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model1_elec:model1_elec} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred_d=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~n {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0874369{col 26}{space 2} .1829353{col 37}{space 1}   -0.48{col 46}{space 3}0.634{col 54}{space 4}-.4532385{col 67}{space 3} .2783648
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2489769{col 26}{space 2} .0931594{col 37}{space 1}    2.67{col 46}{space 3}0.010{col 54}{space 4} .0626932{col 67}{space 3} .4352607
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. matrix b=r(b)
{txt}
{com}. matrix V=r(V)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list b
{res}
{txt}b[1,2]
     systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
               1.            2.
             _at           _at
r1 {res}   -.08743686     .24897691
{reset}
{com}. matrix list V
{res}
{txt}symmetric V[2,2]
                          systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
                                    1.            2.
                                  _at           _at
systemic_shift_ln:1._at {res}    .03346531
{txt}systemic_shift_ln:2._at {res}    .00404272     .00867867
{reset}
{com}. replace effect=b[1,1]                                     if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,1] + 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,1] - 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. replace effect=b[1,2]                                     if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,2] + 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,2] - 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. label define Hyp   1 "Activist-dominated party"  2 "Leader-dominated party"  
{txt}
{com}.                         
. label values x  Hyp
{txt}
{com}. sort x
{txt}
{com}. eclplot effect lower upper x in 1/2, ///
>         rplottype(rspike) ///
>         estopts(msymbol(circle) mcolor(black)) ///
>         ciopts(lcolor(black))   ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(0.8 2.2)) ///
>         xscale(range(-0.01 0.03)) ///
>     ylabel(1 2, valuelabel labsize(small) notick nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-0.50(0.1)0.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: Opinion-based policy change (Model 1)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Marginal effect",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(2) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         xline(0, lcolor(black)) ///
>         horizontal 
{res}{txt}
{com}.         
. graph export figD1a.tif, replace  width(2400) 
{txt}(note: file figD1a.tif not found)
(file figD1a.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}. 
. drop x effect upper lower 
{txt}
{com}. matrix drop _all
{txt}
{com}. label drop Hyp                                          
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Model 2                               
. gen x=_n in 1/2
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen effect=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen upper=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen lower=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. est restore model2_elec   
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model2_elec:model2_elec} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred_d=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~n {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.223826{col 26}{space 2} .6570916{col 37}{space 1}    1.86{col 46}{space 3}0.067{col 54}{space 4}-.0901101{col 67}{space 3} 2.537762
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1003174{col 26}{space 2} .3242549{col 37}{space 1}   -0.31{col 46}{space 3}0.758{col 54}{space 4}-.7487051{col 67}{space 3} .5480704
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. matrix b=r(b)
{txt}
{com}. matrix V=r(V)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list b
{res}
{txt}b[1,2]
     systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
               1.            2.
             _at           _at
r1 {res}    1.2238258    -.10031738
{reset}
{com}. matrix list V
{res}
{txt}symmetric V[2,2]
                          systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
                                    1.            2.
                                  _at           _at
systemic_shift_ln:1._at {res}     .4317694
{txt}systemic_shift_ln:2._at {res}    .02781981     .10514124
{reset}
{com}. replace effect=b[1,1]                                     if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,1] + 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,1] - 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. replace effect=b[1,2]                                     if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,2] + 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,2] - 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. label define Hyp   1 "Activist-dominated party"  2 "Leader-dominated party"  
{txt}
{com}.                         
. label values x  Hyp
{txt}
{com}. sort x
{txt}
{com}. eclplot effect lower upper x in 1/2, ///
>         rplottype(rspike) ///
>         estopts(msymbol(circle) mcolor(black)) ///
>         ciopts(lcolor(black))   ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(0.8 2.2)) ///
>         xscale(range(-2.5 2.5)) ///
>     ylabel(1 2, valuelabel labsize(small) notick nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-2.5(0.5)2.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: Emphasis-based policy change (Model 2)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Marginal effect",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(2) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         xline(0, lcolor(black)) ///
>         horizontal 
{res}{txt}
{com}.         
. graph export figD1b.tif, replace  width(2400) 
{txt}(note: file figD1b.tif not found)
(file figD1b.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}. 
. drop x effect upper lower 
{txt}
{com}. matrix drop _all
{txt}
{com}. label drop Hyp                                          
{txt}
{com}.                 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** Panel-corrected standard errors
. 
. * xtset data
. xtset party edate
{res}{txt}{col 8}panel variable:  {res}party (unbalanced)
{txt}{col 9}time variable:  {res}{col 25}edate, 15feb1977 to 18may2003, but with gaps
{txt}{col 17}delta:  {res}1 day
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *** similar to Schumacher
. xtgls abs_pure_polchange ///
>           i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.abs_pure_polchange_lag ///
>           c.votechange_lag ///    
>           i.country , panels(h) force                             

{txt}Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression

Coefficients:  {res}generalized least squares
{txt}Panels:        {res}heteroskedastic
{txt}Correlation:   {res}no autocorrelation

{txt}Estimated covariances{col 28}= {res}       57{txt}{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Estimated autocorrelations{col 28}= {res}        0{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}= {res}        57
{txt}Estimated coefficients{col 28}= {res}       13{txt}{col 49}Obs per group:
{col 63}min{col 67}= {res}         1
{txt}{col 63}avg{col 67}=  {res} 4.578947
{txt}{col 63}max{col 67}= {res}        10
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}=  {res}    42.25
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}abs_pure_p~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3505207{col 26}{space 2} .1128938{col 37}{space 1}    3.10{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}  .129253{col 67}{space 3} .5717884
{txt}abs_pure_p~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1459183{col 26}{space 2} .0470632{col 37}{space 1}    3.10{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .0536762{col 67}{space 3} .2381605
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0009575{col 26}{space 2}  .007943{col 37}{space 1}   -0.12{col 46}{space 3}0.904{col 54}{space 4}-.0165254{col 67}{space 3} .0146105
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0905771{col 26}{space 2} .1323569{col 37}{space 1}    0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.494{col 54}{space 4}-.1688377{col 67}{space 3} .3499918
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .862974{col 26}{space 2} .3780149{col 37}{space 1}    2.28{col 46}{space 3}0.022{col 54}{space 4} .1220785{col 67}{space 3}  1.60387
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1891672{col 26}{space 2} .1329056{col 37}{space 1}    1.42{col 46}{space 3}0.155{col 54}{space 4} -.071323{col 67}{space 3} .4496575
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .045112{col 26}{space 2}  .127889{col 37}{space 1}    0.35{col 46}{space 3}0.724{col 54}{space 4}-.2055457{col 67}{space 3} .2957698
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1041659{col 26}{space 2} .1393941{col 37}{space 1}   -0.75{col 46}{space 3}0.455{col 54}{space 4}-.3773732{col 67}{space 3} .1690414
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0511087{col 26}{space 2} .1520054{col 37}{space 1}    0.34{col 46}{space 3}0.737{col 54}{space 4}-.2468163{col 67}{space 3} .3490337
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.004502{col 26}{space 2}  .107383{col 37}{space 1}   -0.04{col 46}{space 3}0.967{col 54}{space 4}-.2149689{col 67}{space 3} .2059648
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1553022{col 26}{space 2} .1617846{col 37}{space 1}    0.96{col 46}{space 3}0.337{col 54}{space 4}-.1617897{col 67}{space 3} .4723942
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0192358{col 26}{space 2} .1391463{col 37}{space 1}    0.14{col 46}{space 3}0.890{col 54}{space 4}-.2534859{col 67}{space 3} .2919576
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3266392{col 26}{space 2} .1252651{col 37}{space 1}    2.61{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4} .0811242{col 67}{space 3} .5721543
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. est sto model1_pcse
{txt}
{com}. 
. xtgls abs_pure_salchange ///
>           i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.abs_pure_salchange_lag  ///
>           c.votechange_lag ///    
>           i.country, panels(h) force                              

{txt}Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression

Coefficients:  {res}generalized least squares
{txt}Panels:        {res}heteroskedastic
{txt}Correlation:   {res}no autocorrelation

{txt}Estimated covariances{col 28}= {res}       57{txt}{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Estimated autocorrelations{col 28}= {res}        0{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}= {res}        57
{txt}Estimated coefficients{col 28}= {res}       13{txt}{col 49}Obs per group:
{col 63}min{col 67}= {res}         1
{txt}{col 63}avg{col 67}=  {res} 4.578947
{txt}{col 63}max{col 67}= {res}        10
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}=  {res}   211.05
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}abs_pure_s~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3198987{col 26}{space 2} .3738519{col 37}{space 1}    0.86{col 46}{space 3}0.392{col 54}{space 4}-.4128374{col 67}{space 3} 1.052635
{txt}abs_pure_s~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1500256{col 26}{space 2} .0473561{col 37}{space 1}    3.17{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .0572093{col 67}{space 3} .2428419
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0651719{col 26}{space 2} .0322051{col 37}{space 1}    2.02{col 46}{space 3}0.043{col 54}{space 4}  .002051{col 67}{space 3} .1282928
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.817544{col 26}{space 2} .7230717{col 37}{space 1}   -1.13{col 46}{space 3}0.258{col 54}{space 4}-2.234739{col 67}{space 3} .5996505
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.446113{col 26}{space 2} 1.145415{col 37}{space 1}    1.26{col 46}{space 3}0.207{col 54}{space 4}-.7988591{col 67}{space 3} 3.691086
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.684613{col 26}{space 2} .7521146{col 37}{space 1}   -3.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -4.15873{col 67}{space 3}-1.210495
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.014952{col 26}{space 2} .7361748{col 37}{space 1}   -5.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.457829{col 67}{space 3}-2.572076
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -1.84189{col 26}{space 2} .8684124{col 37}{space 1}   -2.12{col 46}{space 3}0.034{col 54}{space 4}-3.543947{col 67}{space 3}-.1398328
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.484456{col 26}{space 2} .8775939{col 37}{space 1}   -2.83{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4}-4.204509{col 67}{space 3}-.7644039
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.268754{col 26}{space 2} 2.093315{col 37}{space 1}   -0.61{col 46}{space 3}0.544{col 54}{space 4}-5.371576{col 67}{space 3} 2.834068
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.002943{col 26}{space 2} .7512017{col 37}{space 1}   -5.33{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.475271{col 67}{space 3}-2.530615
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.185569{col 26}{space 2} .7773438{col 37}{space 1}   -2.81{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4}-3.709134{col 67}{space 3}-.6620027
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 5.206878{col 26}{space 2} .8166105{col 37}{space 1}    6.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 3.606351{col 67}{space 3} 6.807406
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. est sto model2_pcse
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab model1_pcse model2_pcse    using "Appendix_D_3.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 nogaps
{res}{txt}(note: file Appendix_D_3.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Appendix_D_3.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. 
.         
. xtgls pure_polchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_polchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///    
>           c.unemp_change ///
>           i.country , panels(h) force             

{txt}Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression

Coefficients:  {res}generalized least squares
{txt}Panels:        {res}heteroskedastic
{txt}Correlation:   {res}no autocorrelation

{txt}Estimated covariances{col 28}= {res}       57{txt}{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Estimated autocorrelations{col 28}= {res}        0{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}= {res}        57
{txt}Estimated coefficients{col 28}= {res}       18{txt}{col 49}Obs per group:
{col 63}min{col 67}= {res}         1
{txt}{col 63}avg{col 67}=  {res} 4.578947
{txt}{col 63}max{col 67}= {res}        10
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}17{txt}){col 67}=  {res} 29402.55
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}pure_polch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0738131{col 26}{space 2} .0991605{col 37}{space 1}   -0.74{col 46}{space 3}0.457{col 54}{space 4}-.2681641{col 67}{space 3}  .120538
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1485479{col 26}{space 2} .1203828{col 37}{space 1}   -1.23{col 46}{space 3}0.217{col 54}{space 4}-.3844939{col 67}{space 3} .0873981
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3002994{col 26}{space 2} .1073096{col 37}{space 1}    2.80{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} .0899765{col 67}{space 3} .5106223
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1793728{col 26}{space 2} .3480477{col 37}{space 1}    0.52{col 46}{space 3}0.606{col 54}{space 4}-.5027881{col 67}{space 3} .8615337
{txt}pure_polch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3139672{col 26}{space 2}  .041921{col 37}{space 1}   -7.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3961308{col 67}{space 3}-.2318035
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0089439{col 26}{space 2} .0133022{col 37}{space 1}   -0.67{col 46}{space 3}0.501{col 54}{space 4}-.0350157{col 67}{space 3} .0171279
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_polch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .022083{col 26}{space 2} .0124682{col 37}{space 1}    1.77{col 46}{space 3}0.077{col 54}{space 4}-.0023542{col 67}{space 3} .0465202
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0986814{col 26}{space 2} .0222408{col 37}{space 1}    4.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0550902{col 67}{space 3} .1422727
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2139894{col 26}{space 2} .2184366{col 37}{space 1}   -0.98{col 46}{space 3}0.327{col 54}{space 4}-.6421172{col 67}{space 3} .2141385
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6401702{col 26}{space 2} .3314209{col 37}{space 1}    1.93{col 46}{space 3}0.053{col 54}{space 4}-.0094028{col 67}{space 3} 1.289743
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0016215{col 26}{space 2} .2286007{col 37}{space 1}   -0.01{col 46}{space 3}0.994{col 54}{space 4}-.4496707{col 67}{space 3} .4464277
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .066646{col 26}{space 2} .2341345{col 37}{space 1}    0.28{col 46}{space 3}0.776{col 54}{space 4}-.3922492{col 67}{space 3} .5255412
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3246769{col 26}{space 2}  .222042{col 37}{space 1}   -1.46{col 46}{space 3}0.144{col 54}{space 4}-.7598712{col 67}{space 3} .1105174
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0757088{col 26}{space 2} .2851683{col 37}{space 1}    0.27{col 46}{space 3}0.791{col 54}{space 4}-.4832108{col 67}{space 3} .6346283
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6627447{col 26}{space 2} .3544595{col 37}{space 1}   -1.87{col 46}{space 3}0.062{col 54}{space 4}-1.357473{col 67}{space 3} .0319831
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3914523{col 26}{space 2} .2354804{col 37}{space 1}   -1.66{col 46}{space 3}0.096{col 54}{space 4}-.8529855{col 67}{space 3} .0700808
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0497283{col 26}{space 2} .2572837{col 37}{space 1}    0.19{col 46}{space 3}0.847{col 54}{space 4}-.4545385{col 67}{space 3} .5539952
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2715251{col 26}{space 2} .2186381{col 37}{space 1}    1.24{col 46}{space 3}0.214{col 54}{space 4}-.1569977{col 67}{space 3} .7000479
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. est sto model1_pcse
{txt}
{com}. 
. xtgls pure_salchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_salchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.unemp_change ///
>           i.country, panels(h) force

{txt}Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression

Coefficients:  {res}generalized least squares
{txt}Panels:        {res}heteroskedastic
{txt}Correlation:   {res}no autocorrelation

{txt}Estimated covariances{col 28}= {res}       57{txt}{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Estimated autocorrelations{col 28}= {res}        0{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}= {res}        57
{txt}Estimated coefficients{col 28}= {res}       18{txt}{col 49}Obs per group:
{col 63}min{col 67}= {res}         1
{txt}{col 63}avg{col 67}=  {res} 4.578947
{txt}{col 63}max{col 67}= {res}        10
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}17{txt}){col 67}=  {res}    82.78
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}pure_salch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.326268{col 26}{space 2} .5478408{col 37}{space 1}    2.42{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4} .2525196{col 67}{space 3} 2.400016
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7944597{col 26}{space 2} .5319195{col 37}{space 1}    1.49{col 46}{space 3}0.135{col 54}{space 4}-.2480834{col 67}{space 3} 1.837003
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.577701{col 26}{space 2} .5788042{col 37}{space 1}   -2.73{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4}-2.712136{col 67}{space 3}-.4432656
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -4.19549{col 26}{space 2} 1.376572{col 37}{space 1}   -3.05{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-6.893521{col 67}{space 3}-1.497459
{txt}pure_salch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2523392{col 26}{space 2} .0404351{col 37}{space 1}   -6.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3315905{col 67}{space 3} -.173088
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0893822{col 26}{space 2} .0509996{col 37}{space 1}    1.75{col 46}{space 3}0.080{col 54}{space 4}-.0105752{col 67}{space 3} .1893395
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_salch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0066448{col 26}{space 2}  .011266{col 37}{space 1}    0.59{col 46}{space 3}0.555{col 54}{space 4}-.0154362{col 67}{space 3} .0287258
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0778203{col 26}{space 2} .0868446{col 37}{space 1}    0.90{col 46}{space 3}0.370{col 54}{space 4} -.092392{col 67}{space 3} .2480326
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.028883{col 26}{space 2} 1.088901{col 37}{space 1}    1.86{col 46}{space 3}0.062{col 54}{space 4}-.1053233{col 67}{space 3} 4.163089
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.280616{col 26}{space 2} 1.640847{col 37}{space 1}    0.78{col 46}{space 3}0.435{col 54}{space 4}-1.935384{col 67}{space 3} 4.496616
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5979438{col 26}{space 2} .8815975{col 37}{space 1}    0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.498{col 54}{space 4}-1.129955{col 67}{space 3} 2.325843
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.265272{col 26}{space 2} .8992851{col 37}{space 1}    2.52{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4} .5027054{col 67}{space 3} 4.027838
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.232796{col 26}{space 2} 1.413904{col 37}{space 1}    2.29{col 46}{space 3}0.022{col 54}{space 4} .4615946{col 67}{space 3} 6.003997
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2031457{col 26}{space 2} 1.131546{col 37}{space 1}    0.18{col 46}{space 3}0.858{col 54}{space 4}-2.014644{col 67}{space 3} 2.420936
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.056928{col 26}{space 2} 1.647566{col 37}{space 1}   -3.07{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-8.286097{col 67}{space 3}-1.827758
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9842257{col 26}{space 2} .8965327{col 37}{space 1}    1.10{col 46}{space 3}0.272{col 54}{space 4}-.7729461{col 67}{space 3} 2.741398
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .681856{col 26}{space 2}  1.01528{col 37}{space 1}    0.67{col 46}{space 3}0.502{col 54}{space 4}-1.308055{col 67}{space 3} 2.671768
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.428901{col 26}{space 2} .9176295{col 37}{space 1}   -3.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.227422{col 67}{space 3} -1.63038
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. est sto model2_pcse  
{txt}
{com}.         
. 
. esttab model1_pcse  model2_pcse  using "Appendix_D_4.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 nogaps
{res}{txt}(note: file Appendix_D_4.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Appendix_D_4.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. 
. 
. ***  ME plots 
. 
. * Model 1                                       
. gen x=_n in 1/2
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen effect=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen upper=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen lower=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. est restore model1_pcse   
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model1_pcse:model1_pcse} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred_d=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Fitted values, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~n {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0738131{col 26}{space 2} .0991605{col 37}{space 1}   -0.74{col 46}{space 3}0.457{col 54}{space 4}-.2681641{col 67}{space 3}  .120538
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2264863{col 26}{space 2} .0568012{col 37}{space 1}    3.99{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1151581{col 67}{space 3} .3378146
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. matrix b=r(b)
{txt}
{com}. matrix V=r(V)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list b
{res}
{txt}b[1,2]
     systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
               1.            2.
             _at           _at
r1 {res}   -.07381306     .22648634
{reset}
{com}. matrix list V
{res}
{txt}symmetric V[2,2]
                          systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
                                    1.            2.
                                  _at           _at
systemic_shift_ln:1._at {res}    .00983281
{txt}systemic_shift_ln:2._at {res}    .00077192     .00322637
{reset}
{com}. replace effect=b[1,1]                                     if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,1] + 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,1] - 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. replace effect=b[1,2]                                     if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,2] + 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,2] - 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. label define Hyp   1 "Activist-dominated party"  2 "Leader-dominated party"  
{txt}
{com}.                         
. label values x  Hyp
{txt}
{com}. sort x
{txt}
{com}. eclplot effect lower upper x in 1/2, ///
>         rplottype(rspike) ///
>         estopts(msymbol(circle) mcolor(black)) ///
>         ciopts(lcolor(black))   ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(0.8 2.2)) ///
>         xscale(range(-0.01 0.03)) ///
>         xlabel(-0.50(0.1)0.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>     ylabel(1 2, valuelabel labsize(small) notick nogrid) ///
>         title("DV: Opinion-based policy change (Model 1)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Marginal effect",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(2) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         xline(0, lcolor(black)) ///
>         horizontal 
{res}{txt}
{com}.         
. graph export figD2a.tif, replace  width(2400) 
{txt}(note: file figD2a.tif not found)
(file figD2a.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}. 
. drop x effect upper lower 
{txt}
{com}. matrix drop _all
{txt}
{com}. label drop Hyp                                          
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Model 2                               
. gen x=_n in 1/2
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen effect=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen upper=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen lower=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. est restore model2_pcse   
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model2_pcse:model2_pcse} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred_d=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Fitted values, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~n {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.326268{col 26}{space 2} .5478408{col 37}{space 1}    2.42{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4} .2525196{col 67}{space 3} 2.400016
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2514331{col 26}{space 2} .2328079{col 37}{space 1}   -1.08{col 46}{space 3}0.280{col 54}{space 4}-.7077282{col 67}{space 3}  .204862
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. matrix b=r(b)
{txt}
{com}. matrix V=r(V)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list b
{res}
{txt}b[1,2]
     systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
               1.            2.
             _at           _at
r1 {res}    1.3262678    -.25143312
{reset}
{com}. matrix list V
{res}
{txt}symmetric V[2,2]
                          systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
                                    1.            2.
                                  _at           _at
systemic_shift_ln:1._at {res}    .30012951
{txt}systemic_shift_ln:2._at {res}    .00965738     .05419952
{reset}
{com}. replace effect=b[1,1]                                     if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,1] + 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,1] - 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. replace effect=b[1,2]                                     if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,2] + 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,2] - 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. label define Hyp   1 "Activist-dominated party"  2 "Leader-dominated party"  
{txt}
{com}.                         
. label values x  Hyp
{txt}
{com}. sort x
{txt}
{com}. eclplot effect lower upper x in 1/2, ///
>         rplottype(rspike) ///
>         estopts(msymbol(circle) mcolor(black)) ///
>         ciopts(lcolor(black))   ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(0.8 2.2)) ///
>         xscale(range(-2.5 2.5)) ///
>     ylabel(1 2, valuelabel labsize(small) notick nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-2.5(0.5)2.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: Emphasis-based policy change (Model 2)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Marginal effect",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(2) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         xline(0, lcolor(black)) ///
>         horizontal 
{res}{txt}
{com}.         
. graph export figD2b.tif, replace  width(2400) 
{txt}(note: file figD2b.tif not found)
(file figD2b.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}. 
. drop x effect upper lower 
{txt}
{com}. matrix drop _all
{txt}
{com}. label drop Hyp                  
{txt}
{com}.         
. 
.         
. *****************************************************************************
. *** Appendix E: Controlling for lagged party system policy change
. *****************************************************************************
. 
. regress pure_polchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln_lag##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_polchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///     
>           c.unemp_change ///
>           i.country ,cluster(party)               

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(19, 56)         =  {res}    11.53
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.3202
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 1.3298

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_polch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0176336{col 26}{space 2} .1450197{col 37}{space 1}    0.12{col 46}{space 3}0.904{col 54}{space 4}-.2728759{col 67}{space 3}  .308143
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2066599{col 26}{space 2} .1314178{col 37}{space 1}   -1.57{col 46}{space 3}0.121{col 54}{space 4}-.4699214{col 67}{space 3} .0566016
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~g {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3086445{col 26}{space 2} .1616502{col 37}{space 1}    1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.061{col 54}{space 4}-.0151797{col 67}{space 3} .6324687
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0891143{col 26}{space 2} .1241209{col 37}{space 1}   -0.72{col 46}{space 3}0.476{col 54}{space 4}-.3377584{col 67}{space 3} .1595298
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}   .46951{col 26}{space 2}  .145619{col 37}{space 1}    3.22{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .1778001{col 67}{space 3} .7612198
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4687411{col 26}{space 2}  .610963{col 37}{space 1}    0.77{col 46}{space 3}0.446{col 54}{space 4}-.7551649{col 67}{space 3} 1.692647
{txt}pure_polch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3045768{col 26}{space 2} .0377747{col 37}{space 1}   -8.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3802487{col 67}{space 3}-.2289049
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0099538{col 26}{space 2} .0174377{col 37}{space 1}   -0.57{col 46}{space 3}0.570{col 54}{space 4}-.0448857{col 67}{space 3}  .024978
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_polch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0414447{col 26}{space 2}  .015074{col 37}{space 1}    2.75{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .0112479{col 67}{space 3} .0716414
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1068763{col 26}{space 2} .0407392{col 37}{space 1}    2.62{col 46}{space 3}0.011{col 54}{space 4} .0252658{col 67}{space 3} .1884867
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4750847{col 26}{space 2} .2767206{col 37}{space 1}   -1.72{col 46}{space 3}0.092{col 54}{space 4}-1.029423{col 67}{space 3} .0792532
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2348004{col 26}{space 2} .5559284{col 37}{space 1}   -0.42{col 46}{space 3}0.674{col 54}{space 4}-1.348459{col 67}{space 3}  .878858
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0817213{col 26}{space 2}  .270928{col 37}{space 1}   -0.30{col 46}{space 3}0.764{col 54}{space 4}-.6244553{col 67}{space 3} .4610127
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1310687{col 26}{space 2} .2585086{col 37}{space 1}   -0.51{col 46}{space 3}0.614{col 54}{space 4}-.6489237{col 67}{space 3} .3867862
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5772088{col 26}{space 2} .3283448{col 37}{space 1}   -1.76{col 46}{space 3}0.084{col 54}{space 4}-1.234962{col 67}{space 3} .0805449
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1645102{col 26}{space 2} .2923667{col 37}{space 1}   -0.56{col 46}{space 3}0.576{col 54}{space 4}-.7501911{col 67}{space 3} .4211706
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3670147{col 26}{space 2} .3720466{col 37}{space 1}   -0.99{col 46}{space 3}0.328{col 54}{space 4}-1.112314{col 67}{space 3} .3782842
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6649718{col 26}{space 2}  .443615{col 37}{space 1}   -1.50{col 46}{space 3}0.139{col 54}{space 4}-1.553639{col 67}{space 3} .2236958
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1452346{col 26}{space 2} .2327116{col 37}{space 1}   -0.62{col 46}{space 3}0.535{col 54}{space 4}-.6114119{col 67}{space 3} .3209428
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5319405{col 26}{space 2} .2580417{col 37}{space 1}    2.06{col 46}{space 3}0.044{col 54}{space 4} .0150209{col 67}{space 3}  1.04886
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model1_lag
{txt}
{com}. 
. regress pure_salchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln_lag##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_salchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.unemp_change ///
>           i.country , cluster(party)

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(19, 56)         =  {res}     5.28
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1382
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 5.9922

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_salch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.102606{col 26}{space 2} .5884162{col 37}{space 1}    1.87{col 46}{space 3}0.066{col 54}{space 4}-.0761335{col 67}{space 3} 2.281345
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.059818{col 26}{space 2} .7616743{col 37}{space 1}    1.39{col 46}{space 3}0.170{col 54}{space 4}-.4659988{col 67}{space 3} 2.585635
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~g {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.300953{col 26}{space 2} .7142684{col 37}{space 1}   -1.82{col 46}{space 3}0.074{col 54}{space 4}-2.731805{col 67}{space 3} .1298981
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.411776{col 26}{space 2} .5090377{col 37}{space 1}    2.77{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .3920508{col 67}{space 3} 2.431501
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.588979{col 26}{space 2} .7562912{col 37}{space 1}   -2.10{col 46}{space 3}0.040{col 54}{space 4}-3.104012{col 67}{space 3}-.0739455
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.199921{col 26}{space 2} 1.565345{col 37}{space 1}   -3.32{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-8.335685{col 67}{space 3}-2.064157
{txt}pure_salch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1942005{col 26}{space 2} .0553435{col 37}{space 1}   -3.51{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.3050668{col 67}{space 3}-.0833342
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1225892{col 26}{space 2} .0737758{col 37}{space 1}    1.66{col 46}{space 3}0.102{col 54}{space 4}-.0252015{col 67}{space 3} .2703799
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_salch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0059214{col 26}{space 2} .0162893{col 37}{space 1}    0.36{col 46}{space 3}0.718{col 54}{space 4}-.0267099{col 67}{space 3} .0385527
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1094526{col 26}{space 2} .1579866{col 37}{space 1}    0.69{col 46}{space 3}0.491{col 54}{space 4}-.2070326{col 67}{space 3} .4259378
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.854675{col 26}{space 2} 2.032537{col 37}{space 1}    1.40{col 46}{space 3}0.166{col 54}{space 4}-1.216985{col 67}{space 3} 6.926336
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.080927{col 26}{space 2} 2.479846{col 37}{space 1}    0.44{col 46}{space 3}0.665{col 54}{space 4}  -3.8868{col 67}{space 3} 6.048655
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.112929{col 26}{space 2} 2.062054{col 37}{space 1}    0.54{col 46}{space 3}0.592{col 54}{space 4}-3.017862{col 67}{space 3}  5.24372
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.189576{col 26}{space 2} 1.996262{col 37}{space 1}    1.60{col 46}{space 3}0.116{col 54}{space 4}-.8094178{col 67}{space 3} 7.188569
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.727529{col 26}{space 2} 2.074633{col 37}{space 1}    1.80{col 46}{space 3}0.078{col 54}{space 4}-.4284614{col 67}{space 3} 7.883519
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.048146{col 26}{space 2} 2.234081{col 37}{space 1}    0.47{col 46}{space 3}0.641{col 54}{space 4}-3.427255{col 67}{space 3} 5.523547
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.277174{col 26}{space 2} 2.570906{col 37}{space 1}   -1.66{col 46}{space 3}0.102{col 54}{space 4}-9.427317{col 67}{space 3} .8729693
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.032859{col 26}{space 2}   1.9146{col 37}{space 1}    1.06{col 46}{space 3}0.293{col 54}{space 4}-1.802545{col 67}{space 3} 5.868264
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.695719{col 26}{space 2} 1.954657{col 37}{space 1}    0.87{col 46}{space 3}0.389{col 54}{space 4}-2.219929{col 67}{space 3} 5.611367
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.698957{col 26}{space 2} 2.118313{col 37}{space 1}   -2.22{col 46}{space 3}0.031{col 54}{space 4}-8.942448{col 67}{space 3}-.4554668
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model2_lag
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab  model1_lag  model2_lag  using "Appendix_E_1.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 scalar(ll) nogaps
{res}{txt}(note: file Appendix_E_1.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Appendix_E_1.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. 
. *** ME plots 
. 
. * Model 1                               
. gen x=_n in 1/2
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen effect=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen upper=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen lower=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. est restore model1_lag    
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model1_lag:model1_lag} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln_lag) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred_d=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln_lag}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0617684 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0617684 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~g {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0176336{col 26}{space 2} .1450197{col 37}{space 1}    0.12{col 46}{space 3}0.904{col 54}{space 4}-.2728759{col 67}{space 3}  .308143
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3262781{col 26}{space 2} .0795711{col 37}{space 1}    4.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1668779{col 67}{space 3} .4856782
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. matrix b=r(b)
{txt}
{com}. matrix V=r(V)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list b
{res}
{txt}b[1,2]
     systemic_~g:  systemic_~g:
               1.            2.
             _at           _at
r1 {res}    .01763356     .32627807
{reset}
{com}. matrix list V
{res}
{txt}symmetric V[2,2]
                              systemic_~g:  systemic_~g:
                                        1.            2.
                                      _at           _at
systemic_shift_ln_lag:1._at {res}    .02103072
{txt}systemic_shift_ln_lag:2._at {res}    .00061575     .00633157
{reset}
{com}. replace effect=b[1,1]                                     if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,1] + 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,1] - 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. replace effect=b[1,2]                                     if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,2] + 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,2] - 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. label define Hyp   1 "Activist-dominated party"  2 "Leader-dominated party"  
{txt}
{com}.                         
. label values x  Hyp
{txt}
{com}. sort x
{txt}
{com}. eclplot effect lower upper x in 1/2, ///
>         rplottype(rspike) ///
>         estopts(msymbol(circle) mcolor(black)) ///
>         ciopts(lcolor(black))   ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(0.8 2.2)) ///
>         xscale(range(-0.01 0.03)) ///
>     ylabel(1 2, valuelabel labsize(small) notick nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-0.50(0.1)0.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: Opinion-based policy change (Model 1)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Marginal effect",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(2) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         xline(0, lcolor(black)) ///
>         horizontal 
{res}{txt}
{com}.         
. graph export figE1a.tif, replace  width(4800) 
{txt}(note: file figE1a.tif not found)
(file figE1a.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}. 
. drop x effect upper lower 
{txt}
{com}. matrix drop _all
{txt}
{com}. label drop Hyp                                          
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Model 2                               
. gen x=_n in 1/2
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen effect=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen upper=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen lower=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. est restore model2_lag    
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model2_lag:model2_lag} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln_lag) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred_d=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln_lag}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0617684 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0617684 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~g {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.102606{col 26}{space 2} .5884162{col 37}{space 1}    1.87{col 46}{space 3}0.066{col 54}{space 4}-.0761335{col 67}{space 3} 2.281345
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1983477{col 26}{space 2} .4824927{col 37}{space 1}   -0.41{col 46}{space 3}0.683{col 54}{space 4}-1.164897{col 67}{space 3} .7682013
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. matrix b=r(b)
{txt}
{com}. matrix V=r(V)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list b
{res}
{txt}b[1,2]
     systemic_~g:  systemic_~g:
               1.            2.
             _at           _at
r1 {res}    1.1026057    -.19834773
{reset}
{com}. matrix list V
{res}
{txt}symmetric V[2,2]
                              systemic_~g:  systemic_~g:
                                        1.            2.
                                      _at           _at
systemic_shift_ln_lag:1._at {res}     .3462336
{txt}systemic_shift_ln_lag:2._at {res}    .03442672     .23279922
{reset}
{com}. replace effect=b[1,1]                                     if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,1] + 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,1] - 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. replace effect=b[1,2]                                     if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,2] + 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,2] - 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. label define Hyp   1 "Activist-dominated party"  2 "Leader-dominated party"  
{txt}
{com}.                         
. label values x  Hyp
{txt}
{com}. sort x
{txt}
{com}. eclplot effect lower upper x in 1/2, ///
>         rplottype(rspike) ///
>         estopts(msymbol(circle) mcolor(black)) ///
>         ciopts(lcolor(black))   ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(0.8 2.2)) ///
>         xscale(range(-2 2)) ///
>     ylabel(1 2, valuelabel labsize(small) notick nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-2.5(0.5)2.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: Emphasis-based policy change (Model 2)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Marginal effect",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(2) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         xline(0, lcolor(black)) ///
>         horizontal 
{res}{txt}
{com}.         
. graph export figE1b.tif, replace  width(4800) 
{txt}(note: file figE1b.tif not found)
(file figE1b.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}. 
. drop x effect upper lower 
{txt}
{com}. matrix drop _all
{txt}
{com}. label drop Hyp          
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
. *** Continuous measure for party organization
. *****************************************************************************
. 
. * proof for our claim that "The empirical range of this continuous measure is from -12.4 to +14.1."
. sum leadercentred

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
leadercen~ed {c |}{res}        261    6.401379    5.563412     -12.43      14.12
{txt}
{com}. 
.         
. regress abs_pure_polchange ///
>           c.leadercentred##c.leadercentred       ///
>           c.abs_pure_polchange_lag ///
>           c.votechange_lag ///    
>           i.country, cluster(party) 

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(13, 56)         =  {res}     3.87
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0002
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1411
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 1.0925

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}abs_pure_p~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0496538{col 26}{space 2} .0159822{col 37}{space 1}    3.11{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0176376{col 67}{space 3} .0816701
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0029634{col 26}{space 2} .0020638{col 37}{space 1}   -1.44{col 46}{space 3}0.157{col 54}{space 4}-.0070978{col 67}{space 3}  .001171
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
abs_pure_p~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1023857{col 26}{space 2} .0893179{col 37}{space 1}    1.15{col 46}{space 3}0.257{col 54}{space 4}-.0765394{col 67}{space 3} .2813109
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0014477{col 26}{space 2} .0113842{col 37}{space 1}    0.13{col 46}{space 3}0.899{col 54}{space 4}-.0213576{col 67}{space 3} .0242531
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2982543{col 26}{space 2} .2740479{col 37}{space 1}    1.09{col 46}{space 3}0.281{col 54}{space 4}-.2507295{col 67}{space 3} .8472382
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.282199{col 26}{space 2} .6377303{col 37}{space 1}    2.01{col 46}{space 3}0.049{col 54}{space 4} .0046716{col 67}{space 3} 2.559726
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4124599{col 26}{space 2} .3319286{col 37}{space 1}    1.24{col 46}{space 3}0.219{col 54}{space 4} -.252473{col 67}{space 3} 1.077393
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .003667{col 26}{space 2} .2349304{col 37}{space 1}    0.02{col 46}{space 3}0.988{col 54}{space 4}-.4669552{col 67}{space 3} .4742892
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0625599{col 26}{space 2}  .299292{col 37}{space 1}    0.21{col 46}{space 3}0.835{col 54}{space 4}-.5369939{col 67}{space 3} .6621138
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1328945{col 26}{space 2} .2586981{col 37}{space 1}    0.51{col 46}{space 3}0.609{col 54}{space 4}  -.38534{col 67}{space 3}  .651129
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0567084{col 26}{space 2} .2581802{col 37}{space 1}    0.22{col 46}{space 3}0.827{col 54}{space 4}-.4604887{col 67}{space 3} .5739055
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2558813{col 26}{space 2}  .278536{col 37}{space 1}    0.92{col 46}{space 3}0.362{col 54}{space 4}-.3020934{col 67}{space 3}  .813856
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0189255{col 26}{space 2} .2328922{col 37}{space 1}    0.08{col 46}{space 3}0.936{col 54}{space 4}-.4476136{col 67}{space 3} .4854647
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5575796{col 26}{space 2}  .212966{col 37}{space 1}    2.62{col 46}{space 3}0.011{col 54}{space 4} .1309575{col 67}{space 3} .9842018
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model1_cont 
{txt}
{com}. 
. regress abs_pure_salchange ///
>           c.leadercentred##c.leadercentred       ///
>           c.abs_pure_salchange_lag  ///
>           c.votechange_lag ///    
>           i.country, cluster(party) 

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(13, 56)         =  {res}     7.37
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1639
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res}  4.167

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}abs_pure_s~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0658221{col 26}{space 2} .0716293{col 37}{space 1}    0.92{col 46}{space 3}0.362{col 54}{space 4}-.0776687{col 67}{space 3} .2093129
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0038677{col 26}{space 2} .0083469{col 37}{space 1}    0.46{col 46}{space 3}0.645{col 54}{space 4}-.0128532{col 67}{space 3} .0205886
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
abs_pure_s~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1209021{col 26}{space 2} .0515102{col 37}{space 1}    2.35{col 46}{space 3}0.022{col 54}{space 4} .0177147{col 67}{space 3} .2240895
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0505877{col 26}{space 2}  .049871{col 37}{space 1}    1.01{col 46}{space 3}0.315{col 54}{space 4} -.049316{col 67}{space 3} .1504914
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2760707{col 26}{space 2} 1.620622{col 37}{space 1}   -0.17{col 46}{space 3}0.865{col 54}{space 4}-3.522567{col 67}{space 3} 2.970426
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8413987{col 26}{space 2} 2.252441{col 37}{space 1}    0.37{col 46}{space 3}0.710{col 54}{space 4}-3.670783{col 67}{space 3}  5.35358
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.066857{col 26}{space 2} 1.670224{col 37}{space 1}   -1.24{col 46}{space 3}0.221{col 54}{space 4}-5.412718{col 67}{space 3} 1.279004
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.698733{col 26}{space 2} 1.564348{col 37}{space 1}   -2.36{col 46}{space 3}0.022{col 54}{space 4}-6.832498{col 67}{space 3}-.5649671
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.515538{col 26}{space 2}  1.55176{col 37}{space 1}   -0.98{col 46}{space 3}0.333{col 54}{space 4}-4.624087{col 67}{space 3} 1.593012
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.781284{col 26}{space 2} 1.522626{col 37}{space 1}   -1.17{col 46}{space 3}0.247{col 54}{space 4} -4.83147{col 67}{space 3} 1.268903
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4109365{col 26}{space 2}  2.43694{col 37}{space 1}    0.17{col 46}{space 3}0.867{col 54}{space 4}-4.470842{col 67}{space 3} 5.292715
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.858102{col 26}{space 2} 1.551581{col 37}{space 1}   -2.49{col 46}{space 3}0.016{col 54}{space 4}-6.966292{col 67}{space 3}-.7499126
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.962062{col 26}{space 2} 1.480143{col 37}{space 1}   -1.33{col 46}{space 3}0.190{col 54}{space 4}-4.927144{col 67}{space 3} 1.003021
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 4.826982{col 26}{space 2} 1.556286{col 37}{space 1}    3.10{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} 1.709367{col 67}{space 3} 7.944597
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model2_cont       
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. esttab model1_cont model2_cont  using "Appendix_F_1.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 scalar(ll) nogaps
{res}{txt}(note: file Appendix_F_1.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Appendix_F_1.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. 
.          
. est restore model1_cont
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model1_cont:model1_cont} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(leadercentred) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred=(-5(1)13))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:leadercentred}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:11._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:12._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:13._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}7}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:14._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:15._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}9}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:16._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}10}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:17._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:18._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}12}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:19._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}13}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_p~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}1.13361 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}leadercen~ed {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .079288{col 26}{space 2} .0346935{col 37}{space 1}    2.29{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4} .0097886{col 67}{space 3} .1487874
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0733612{col 26}{space 2} .0307546{col 37}{space 1}    2.39{col 46}{space 3}0.020{col 54}{space 4} .0117523{col 67}{space 3} .1349701
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0674343{col 26}{space 2} .0268725{col 37}{space 1}    2.51{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4} .0136023{col 67}{space 3} .1212663
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0615075{col 26}{space 2} .0230757{col 37}{space 1}    2.67{col 46}{space 3}0.010{col 54}{space 4} .0152813{col 67}{space 3} .1077337
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0555807{col 26}{space 2} .0194145{col 37}{space 1}    2.86{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4} .0166888{col 67}{space 3} .0944725
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0496538{col 26}{space 2} .0159822{col 37}{space 1}    3.11{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0176376{col 67}{space 3} .0816701
{txt}{space 10}7  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .043727{col 26}{space 2} .0129621{col 37}{space 1}    3.37{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .0177608{col 67}{space 3} .0696932
{txt}{space 10}8  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0378002{col 26}{space 2} .0107087{col 37}{space 1}    3.53{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}  .016348{col 67}{space 3} .0592524
{txt}{space 10}9  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0318733{col 26}{space 2}  .009768{col 37}{space 1}    3.26{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .0123057{col 67}{space 3}  .051441
{txt}{space 9}10  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0259465{col 26}{space 2} .0104988{col 37}{space 1}    2.47{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4} .0049148{col 67}{space 3} .0469782
{txt}{space 9}11  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0200197{col 26}{space 2}  .012614{col 37}{space 1}    1.59{col 46}{space 3}0.118{col 54}{space 4}-.0052492{col 67}{space 3} .0452886
{txt}{space 9}12  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0140929{col 26}{space 2} .0155588{col 37}{space 1}    0.91{col 46}{space 3}0.369{col 54}{space 4}-.0170751{col 67}{space 3} .0452609
{txt}{space 9}13  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .008166{col 26}{space 2} .0189503{col 37}{space 1}    0.43{col 46}{space 3}0.668{col 54}{space 4} -.029796{col 67}{space 3} .0461281
{txt}{space 9}14  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0022392{col 26}{space 2} .0225882{col 37}{space 1}    0.10{col 46}{space 3}0.921{col 54}{space 4}-.0430105{col 67}{space 3} .0474889
{txt}{space 9}15  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0036876{col 26}{space 2} .0263708{col 37}{space 1}   -0.14{col 46}{space 3}0.889{col 54}{space 4}-.0565147{col 67}{space 3} .0491394
{txt}{space 9}16  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0096145{col 26}{space 2} .0302437{col 37}{space 1}   -0.32{col 46}{space 3}0.752{col 54}{space 4}-.0701999{col 67}{space 3}  .050971
{txt}{space 9}17  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0155413{col 26}{space 2} .0341764{col 37}{space 1}   -0.45{col 46}{space 3}0.651{col 54}{space 4}-.0840048{col 67}{space 3} .0529222
{txt}{space 9}18  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0214681{col 26}{space 2} .0381502{col 37}{space 1}   -0.56{col 46}{space 3}0.576{col 54}{space 4}-.0978922{col 67}{space 3}  .054956
{txt}{space 9}19  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0273949{col 26}{space 2} .0421537{col 37}{space 1}   -0.65{col 46}{space 3}0.518{col 54}{space 4}-.1118389{col 67}{space 3}  .057049
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ///
>         plotopts(recast(line) lcolor(black) )   ///
>         ciopts(recast(rarea) color(gs12) fintensity(100))       ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(-0.15 0.15)) ///
>         xscale(range(-5 13)) ///
>     ylabel(-0.1(0.1)0.1, valuelabel labsize(small)  nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-5(2.5)12.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: |Opinion-based policy change| (Model 1)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Leader-dominated party organization",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(4) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         yline(0, lcolor(black)) /// 
>         xline(0, lcolor(black))  

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: leadercentred{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. graph export figF1a.tif, replace  width(2400) 
{txt}(note: file figF1a.tif not found)
(file figF1a.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}. 
. 
. est restore model2_cont
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model2_cont:model2_cont} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(leadercentred) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred=(-5(1)13))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:leadercentred}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:11._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:12._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:13._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}7}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:14._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:15._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}9}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:16._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}10}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:17._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:18._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}12}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:19._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}13}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:abs_pure_s~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}5.464145 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}leadercen~ed {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0271452{col 26}{space 2}  .140782{col 37}{space 1}    0.19{col 46}{space 3}0.848{col 54}{space 4} -.254875{col 67}{space 3} .3091653
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0348806{col 26}{space 2}  .125567{col 37}{space 1}    0.28{col 46}{space 3}0.782{col 54}{space 4}-.2166603{col 67}{space 3} .2864214
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .042616{col 26}{space 2} .1107788{col 37}{space 1}    0.38{col 46}{space 3}0.702{col 54}{space 4}-.1793006{col 67}{space 3} .2645325
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0503513{col 26}{space 2} .0966135{col 37}{space 1}    0.52{col 46}{space 3}0.604{col 54}{space 4}-.1431888{col 67}{space 3} .2438915
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0580867{col 26}{space 2} .0833893{col 37}{space 1}    0.70{col 46}{space 3}0.489{col 54}{space 4}-.1089622{col 67}{space 3} .2251356
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0658221{col 26}{space 2} .0716293{col 37}{space 1}    0.92{col 46}{space 3}0.362{col 54}{space 4}-.0776687{col 67}{space 3} .2093129
{txt}{space 10}7  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0735575{col 26}{space 2}   .06217{col 37}{space 1}    1.18{col 46}{space 3}0.242{col 54}{space 4} -.050984{col 67}{space 3}  .198099
{txt}{space 10}8  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0812929{col 26}{space 2} .0561856{col 37}{space 1}    1.45{col 46}{space 3}0.154{col 54}{space 4}-.0312605{col 67}{space 3} .1938462
{txt}{space 10}9  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0890283{col 26}{space 2} .0548262{col 37}{space 1}    1.62{col 46}{space 3}0.110{col 54}{space 4}-.0208018{col 67}{space 3} .1988584
{txt}{space 9}10  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0967637{col 26}{space 2} .0584155{col 37}{space 1}    1.66{col 46}{space 3}0.103{col 54}{space 4}-.0202567{col 67}{space 3}  .213784
{txt}{space 9}11  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .104499{col 26}{space 2} .0661528{col 37}{space 1}    1.58{col 46}{space 3}0.120{col 54}{space 4} -.028021{col 67}{space 3} .2370191
{txt}{space 9}12  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1122344{col 26}{space 2} .0767945{col 37}{space 1}    1.46{col 46}{space 3}0.149{col 54}{space 4}-.0416034{col 67}{space 3} .2660723
{txt}{space 9}13  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1199698{col 26}{space 2} .0893082{col 37}{space 1}    1.34{col 46}{space 3}0.185{col 54}{space 4}-.0589361{col 67}{space 3} .2988757
{txt}{space 9}14  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1277052{col 26}{space 2} .1030141{col 37}{space 1}    1.24{col 46}{space 3}0.220{col 54}{space 4}-.0786567{col 67}{space 3} .3340671
{txt}{space 9}15  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1354406{col 26}{space 2} .1174955{col 37}{space 1}    1.15{col 46}{space 3}0.254{col 54}{space 4}-.0999313{col 67}{space 3} .3708124
{txt}{space 9}16  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .143176{col 26}{space 2} .1324986{col 37}{space 1}    1.08{col 46}{space 3}0.285{col 54}{space 4}-.1222506{col 67}{space 3} .4086025
{txt}{space 9}17  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1509114{col 26}{space 2} .1478645{col 37}{space 1}    1.02{col 46}{space 3}0.312{col 54}{space 4}-.1452969{col 67}{space 3} .4471196
{txt}{space 9}18  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1586467{col 26}{space 2} .1634911{col 37}{space 1}    0.97{col 46}{space 3}0.336{col 54}{space 4}-.1688652{col 67}{space 3} .4861587
{txt}{space 9}19  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1663821{col 26}{space 2} .1793101{col 37}{space 1}    0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.357{col 54}{space 4}-.1928192{col 67}{space 3} .5255835
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ///
>         plotopts(recast(line) lcolor(black) )   ///
>         ciopts(recast(rarea) color(gs12) fintensity(100))       ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(-0.2 0.6)) ///
>         xscale(range(-5 13)) ///
>     ylabel(-0.2(0.2)0.6, valuelabel labsize(small)  nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-5(2.5)12.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: |Emphasis-based policy change| (Model 2)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Leader-dominated party organization",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(4) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         yline(0, lcolor(black)) /// 
>         xline(0, lcolor(black))  

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: leadercentred{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. graph export figF1b.tif, replace  width(2400) 
{txt}(note: file figF1b.tif not found)
(file figF1b.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}.         
.         
.         
. regress pure_polchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##c.leadercentred##c.leadercentred    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_polchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.unemp_change ///
>           i.country,cluster(party)                

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(19, 56)         =  {res}    12.78
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.2708
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 1.3772

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_polch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .006052{col 26}{space 2} .1042671{col 37}{space 1}    0.06{col 46}{space 3}0.954{col 54}{space 4}-.2028202{col 67}{space 3} .2149241
{txt}leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0013457{col 26}{space 2} .0178792{col 37}{space 1}   -0.08{col 46}{space 3}0.940{col 54}{space 4} -.037162{col 67}{space 3} .0344706
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0316105{col 26}{space 2} .0229523{col 37}{space 1}    1.38{col 46}{space 3}0.174{col 54}{space 4}-.0143685{col 67}{space 3} .0775895
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0007768{col 26}{space 2} .0021847{col 37}{space 1}   -0.36{col 46}{space 3}0.723{col 54}{space 4}-.0051534{col 67}{space 3} .0035997
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0001485{col 26}{space 2} .0024534{col 37}{space 1}   -0.06{col 46}{space 3}0.952{col 54}{space 4}-.0050633{col 67}{space 3} .0047662
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3588256{col 26}{space 2} .6250981{col 37}{space 1}    0.57{col 46}{space 3}0.568{col 54}{space 4}-.8933963{col 67}{space 3} 1.611048
{txt}pure_polch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2511788{col 26}{space 2} .0475478{col 37}{space 1}   -5.28{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3464284{col 67}{space 3}-.1559292
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0081139{col 26}{space 2} .0191692{col 37}{space 1}   -0.42{col 46}{space 3}0.674{col 54}{space 4}-.0465145{col 67}{space 3} .0302867
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_polch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0427305{col 26}{space 2} .0156132{col 37}{space 1}    2.74{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .0114535{col 67}{space 3} .0740076
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1170009{col 26}{space 2} .0427731{col 37}{space 1}    2.74{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .0313161{col 67}{space 3} .2026857
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3726194{col 26}{space 2} .2875037{col 37}{space 1}   -1.30{col 46}{space 3}0.200{col 54}{space 4}-.9485586{col 67}{space 3} .2033197
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3363261{col 26}{space 2} .5568725{col 37}{space 1}    0.60{col 46}{space 3}0.548{col 54}{space 4}-.7792235{col 67}{space 3} 1.451876
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0124286{col 26}{space 2}  .315922{col 37}{space 1}    0.04{col 46}{space 3}0.969{col 54}{space 4}-.6204393{col 67}{space 3} .6452964
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0129535{col 26}{space 2}  .280986{col 37}{space 1}   -0.05{col 46}{space 3}0.963{col 54}{space 4}-.5758361{col 67}{space 3} .5499292
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5659088{col 26}{space 2} .3504489{col 37}{space 1}   -1.61{col 46}{space 3}0.112{col 54}{space 4}-1.267942{col 67}{space 3} .1361246
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0508175{col 26}{space 2} .3085904{col 37}{space 1}   -0.16{col 46}{space 3}0.870{col 54}{space 4}-.6689984{col 67}{space 3} .5673633
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8599035{col 26}{space 2} .2958511{col 37}{space 1}   -2.91{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4}-1.452564{col 67}{space 3}-.2672425
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5277943{col 26}{space 2}  .419748{col 37}{space 1}   -1.26{col 46}{space 3}0.214{col 54}{space 4}-1.368651{col 67}{space 3} .3130619
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.090165{col 26}{space 2} .2534855{col 37}{space 1}   -0.36{col 46}{space 3}0.723{col 54}{space 4}-.5979575{col 67}{space 3} .4176274
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3272674{col 26}{space 2} .2473473{col 37}{space 1}    1.32{col 46}{space 3}0.191{col 54}{space 4}-.1682288{col 67}{space 3} .8227637
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model1_cont 
{txt}
{com}. 
. regress pure_salchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##c.leadercentred##c.leadercentred    ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_salchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.unemp_change ///
>           i.country, cluster(party)

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(19, 56)         =  {res}     3.65
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0001
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1333
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res}  6.009

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_salch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .461445{col 26}{space 2} .4011711{col 37}{space 1}    1.15{col 46}{space 3}0.255{col 54}{space 4}-.3421973{col 67}{space 3} 1.265087
{txt}leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0780918{col 26}{space 2} .0906642{col 37}{space 1}    0.86{col 46}{space 3}0.393{col 54}{space 4}-.1035305{col 67}{space 3} .2597141
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2382632{col 26}{space 2} .0942299{col 37}{space 1}   -2.53{col 46}{space 3}0.014{col 54}{space 4}-.4270283{col 67}{space 3}-.0494981
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0075813{col 26}{space 2} .0099453{col 37}{space 1}   -0.76{col 46}{space 3}0.449{col 54}{space 4} -.027504{col 67}{space 3} .0123415
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
leadercen~ed {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0181776{col 26}{space 2} .0132352{col 37}{space 1}    1.37{col 46}{space 3}0.175{col 54}{space 4}-.0083357{col 67}{space 3} .0446909
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.810446{col 26}{space 2} 1.828773{col 37}{space 1}   -3.18{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-9.473917{col 67}{space 3}-2.146974
{txt}pure_salch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1930961{col 26}{space 2} .0554258{col 37}{space 1}   -3.48{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.3041273{col 67}{space 3}-.0820649
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1319814{col 26}{space 2}  .076377{col 37}{space 1}    1.73{col 46}{space 3}0.089{col 54}{space 4}-.0210201{col 67}{space 3} .2849829
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_salch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0064937{col 26}{space 2} .0138062{col 37}{space 1}    0.47{col 46}{space 3}0.640{col 54}{space 4}-.0211634{col 67}{space 3} .0341508
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .107404{col 26}{space 2} .1582156{col 37}{space 1}    0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.500{col 54}{space 4}-.2095398{col 67}{space 3} .4243479
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.906983{col 26}{space 2} 1.984533{col 37}{space 1}    1.46{col 46}{space 3}0.149{col 54}{space 4}-1.068515{col 67}{space 3} 6.882481
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.016551{col 26}{space 2} 2.232736{col 37}{space 1}    0.46{col 46}{space 3}0.651{col 54}{space 4}-3.456158{col 67}{space 3} 5.489259
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.440625{col 26}{space 2} 2.120407{col 37}{space 1}    0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.500{col 54}{space 4}-2.807061{col 67}{space 3} 5.688311
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.929223{col 26}{space 2} 1.893717{col 37}{space 1}    1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.128{col 54}{space 4}-.8643483{col 67}{space 3} 6.722794
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  3.92679{col 26}{space 2} 2.029743{col 37}{space 1}    1.93{col 46}{space 3}0.058{col 54}{space 4}-.1392732{col 67}{space 3} 7.992854
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9516985{col 26}{space 2}  2.19972{col 37}{space 1}    0.43{col 46}{space 3}0.667{col 54}{space 4} -3.45487{col 67}{space 3} 5.358267
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -4.62661{col 26}{space 2} 2.582817{col 37}{space 1}   -1.79{col 46}{space 3}0.079{col 54}{space 4}-9.800614{col 67}{space 3} .5473936
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.164755{col 26}{space 2}   1.8933{col 37}{space 1}    1.14{col 46}{space 3}0.258{col 54}{space 4}-1.627981{col 67}{space 3} 5.957491
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.519567{col 26}{space 2} 1.924831{col 37}{space 1}    0.79{col 46}{space 3}0.433{col 54}{space 4}-2.336333{col 67}{space 3} 5.375466
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.883634{col 26}{space 2} 1.861813{col 37}{space 1}   -2.09{col 46}{space 3}0.042{col 54}{space 4}-7.613294{col 67}{space 3}-.1539743
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model2_cont 
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab  model1_cont  model2_cont  using "Appendix_F_2.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 scalar(ll) nogaps
{res}{txt}(note: file Appendix_F_2.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Appendix_F_2.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. sum leadercentred, detail

                  {txt}Leader-centred party org
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}    -8.35         -12.43
{txt} 5%    {res}    -3.65          -8.35
{txt}10%    {res}    -2.65          -8.35       {txt}Obs         {res}        261
{txt}25%    {res}     3.27          -7.35       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        261

{txt}50%    {res}     7.58                      {txt}Mean          {res} 6.401379
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 5.563412
{txt}75%    {res}    11.05          14.12
{txt}90%    {res}    12.59          14.12       {txt}Variance      {res} 30.95156
{txt}95%    {res}    13.35          14.12       {txt}Skewness      {res}-.7945964
{txt}99%    {res}    14.12          14.12       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.943425
{txt}
{com}. * 2.5 - 97.5% (~-5 - 13)
. 
. 
. est restore model1_cont
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model1_cont:model1_cont} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred=(-5(1)13))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:11._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:12._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:13._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}7}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:14._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:15._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}9}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:16._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}10}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:17._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:18._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}12}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:19._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}13}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~n {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.155714{col 26}{space 2} .1674072{col 37}{space 1}   -0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.356{col 54}{space 4}-.4910709{col 67}{space 3} .1796429
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1227666{col 26}{space 2} .1354755{col 37}{space 1}   -0.91{col 46}{space 3}0.369{col 54}{space 4}-.3941568{col 67}{space 3} .1486235
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0901164{col 26}{space 2} .1133814{col 37}{space 1}   -0.79{col 46}{space 3}0.430{col 54}{space 4}-.3172465{col 67}{space 3} .1370138
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0577632{col 26}{space 2}  .102006{col 37}{space 1}   -0.57{col 46}{space 3}0.573{col 54}{space 4}-.2621058{col 67}{space 3} .1465794
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0257071{col 26}{space 2} .1001135{col 37}{space 1}   -0.26{col 46}{space 3}0.798{col 54}{space 4}-.2262585{col 67}{space 3} .1748443
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .006052{col 26}{space 2} .1042671{col 37}{space 1}    0.06{col 46}{space 3}0.954{col 54}{space 4}-.2028202{col 67}{space 3} .2149241
{txt}{space 10}7  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0375139{col 26}{space 2} .1107263{col 37}{space 1}    0.34{col 46}{space 3}0.736{col 54}{space 4}-.1842976{col 67}{space 3} .2593254
{txt}{space 10}8  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0686788{col 26}{space 2}  .116797{col 37}{space 1}    0.59{col 46}{space 3}0.559{col 54}{space 4}-.1652938{col 67}{space 3} .3026514
{txt}{space 10}9  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0995466{col 26}{space 2} .1208824{col 37}{space 1}    0.82{col 46}{space 3}0.414{col 54}{space 4}  -.14261{col 67}{space 3} .3417032
{txt}{space 9}10  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1301173{col 26}{space 2} .1221272{col 37}{space 1}    1.07{col 46}{space 3}0.291{col 54}{space 4}-.1145328{col 67}{space 3} .3747674
{txt}{space 9}11  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .160391{col 26}{space 2} .1201465{col 37}{space 1}    1.33{col 46}{space 3}0.187{col 54}{space 4}-.0802913{col 67}{space 3} .4010733
{txt}{space 9}12  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1903675{col 26}{space 2} .1149067{col 37}{space 1}    1.66{col 46}{space 3}0.103{col 54}{space 4}-.0398183{col 67}{space 3} .4205534
{txt}{space 9}13  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .220047{col 26}{space 2} .1067487{col 37}{space 1}    2.06{col 46}{space 3}0.044{col 54}{space 4} .0062037{col 67}{space 3} .4338904
{txt}{space 9}14  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2494295{col 26}{space 2} .0965914{col 37}{space 1}    2.58{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4} .0559337{col 67}{space 3} .4429252
{txt}{space 9}15  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2785148{col 26}{space 2} .0864371{col 37}{space 1}    3.22{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .1053604{col 67}{space 3} .4516692
{txt}{space 9}16  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3073031{col 26}{space 2} .0801761{col 37}{space 1}    3.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1466911{col 67}{space 3} .4679151
{txt}{space 9}17  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3357943{col 26}{space 2} .0833864{col 37}{space 1}    4.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1687512{col 67}{space 3} .5028373
{txt}{space 9}18  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3639884{col 26}{space 2} .0997198{col 37}{space 1}    3.65{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .1642257{col 67}{space 3} .5637511
{txt}{space 9}19  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3918854{col 26}{space 2} .1282274{col 37}{space 1}    3.06{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .1350151{col 67}{space 3} .6487557
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ///
>         plotopts(recast(line) lcolor(black) )   ///
>         ciopts(recast(rarea) color(gs12) fintensity(100))       ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(-0.5 1)) ///
>         xscale(range(-5 13)) ///
>     ylabel(-0.5(0.25)1, valuelabel labsize(small)  nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-5(2.5)12.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: Opinion-based policy change (Model 1)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Leader-dominated party organization",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(4) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         yline(0, lcolor(black)) /// 
>         xline(0, lcolor(black))  

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: leadercentred{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. graph export figF2a.tif, replace  width(2400) 
{txt}(note: file figF2a.tif not found)
(file figF2a.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}. 
. 
. est restore model2_cont
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model2_cont:model2_cont} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred=(-5(1)13))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}-1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:11._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:12._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:13._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}7}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:14._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:15._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}9}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:16._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}10}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:17._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:18._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}12}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:19._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercen~ed}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}13}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~n {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.107201{col 26}{space 2} .5924333{col 37}{space 1}    3.56{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .9204143{col 67}{space 3} 3.293987
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.705339{col 26}{space 2} .4318733{col 37}{space 1}    3.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8401931{col 67}{space 3} 2.570485
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.339833{col 26}{space 2} .3335223{col 37}{space 1}    4.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6717074{col 67}{space 3} 2.007958
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.010682{col 26}{space 2} .3115849{col 37}{space 1}    3.24{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .3865022{col 67}{space 3} 1.634861
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7178858{col 26}{space 2} .3467027{col 37}{space 1}    2.07{col 46}{space 3}0.043{col 54}{space 4} .0233568{col 67}{space 3} 1.412415
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .461445{col 26}{space 2} .4011711{col 37}{space 1}    1.15{col 46}{space 3}0.255{col 54}{space 4}-.3421973{col 67}{space 3} 1.265087
{txt}{space 10}7  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2413593{col 26}{space 2} .4514909{col 37}{space 1}    0.53{col 46}{space 3}0.595{col 54}{space 4}-.6630857{col 67}{space 3} 1.145804
{txt}{space 10}8  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0576289{col 26}{space 2} .4875209{col 37}{space 1}    0.12{col 46}{space 3}0.906{col 54}{space 4}-.9189927{col 67}{space 3} 1.034251
{txt}{space 10}9  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0897463{col 26}{space 2} .5053676{col 37}{space 1}   -0.18{col 46}{space 3}0.860{col 54}{space 4}-1.102119{col 67}{space 3} .9226266
{txt}{space 9}10  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2007664{col 26}{space 2} .5041509{col 37}{space 1}   -0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.692{col 54}{space 4}-1.210702{col 67}{space 3} .8091693
{txt}{space 9}11  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2754313{col 26}{space 2} .4851397{col 37}{space 1}   -0.57{col 46}{space 3}0.572{col 54}{space 4}-1.247283{col 67}{space 3} .6964204
{txt}{space 9}12  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.313741{col 26}{space 2} .4522681{col 37}{space 1}   -0.69{col 46}{space 3}0.491{col 54}{space 4}-1.219743{col 67}{space 3} .5922608
{txt}{space 9}13  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3156955{col 26}{space 2} .4141287{col 37}{space 1}   -0.76{col 46}{space 3}0.449{col 54}{space 4}-1.145295{col 67}{space 3}  .513904
{txt}{space 9}14  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2812948{col 26}{space 2} .3875694{col 37}{space 1}   -0.73{col 46}{space 3}0.471{col 54}{space 4} -1.05769{col 67}{space 3}    .4951
{txt}{space 9}15  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2105389{col 26}{space 2} .3985647{col 37}{space 1}   -0.53{col 46}{space 3}0.599{col 54}{space 4} -1.00896{col 67}{space 3} .5878822
{txt}{space 9}16  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1034278{col 26}{space 2} .4688531{col 37}{space 1}   -0.22{col 46}{space 3}0.826{col 54}{space 4}-1.042653{col 67}{space 3} .8357977
{txt}{space 9}17  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0400384{col 26}{space 2} .5997593{col 37}{space 1}    0.07{col 46}{space 3}0.947{col 54}{space 4}-1.161424{col 67}{space 3} 1.241501
{txt}{space 9}18  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2198598{col 26}{space 2} .7805866{col 37}{space 1}    0.28{col 46}{space 3}0.779{col 54}{space 4}-1.343843{col 67}{space 3} 1.783563
{txt}{space 9}19  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4360364{col 26}{space 2} 1.001817{col 37}{space 1}    0.44{col 46}{space 3}0.665{col 54}{space 4}-1.570844{col 67}{space 3} 2.442917
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ///
>         plotopts(recast(line) lcolor(black) )   ///
>         ciopts(recast(rarea) color(gs12) fintensity(100))       ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(-2 4)) ///
>         xscale(range(-5 13)) ///
>     ylabel(-2(1)4, valuelabel labsize(small)  nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-5(2.5)12.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: Emphasis-based policy change (Model 2)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Leader-dominated party organization",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(4) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         yline(0, lcolor(black)) /// 
>         xline(0, lcolor(black))  

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: leadercentred{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. graph export figF2b.tif, replace  width(2400) 
{txt}(note: file figF2b.tif not found)
(file figF2b.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *******************************************************************************
. *** Appendix G: Controlling for alternative party characteristics 
. *******************************************************************************
. 
. regress abs_pure_polchange ///
>           i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.abs_pure_polchange_lag ///
>           c.pervote_lag ///
>           c.sal_eco_lag ///
>           c.votechange_lag ///    
>           i.country , cluster(party)

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(14, 56)         =  {res}     3.55
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0003
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1524
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 1.0875

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}abs_pure_p~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .557212{col 26}{space 2} .1752783{col 37}{space 1}    3.18{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .2060875{col 67}{space 3} .9083365
{txt}abs_pure_p~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0919209{col 26}{space 2} .0902109{col 37}{space 1}    1.02{col 46}{space 3}0.313{col 54}{space 4}-.0887931{col 67}{space 3}  .272635
{txt}{space 1}pervote_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0109359{col 26}{space 2} .0052345{col 37}{space 1}   -2.09{col 46}{space 3}0.041{col 54}{space 4}-.0214217{col 67}{space 3}  -.00045
{txt}{space 1}sal_eco_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0138232{col 26}{space 2}  .007858{col 37}{space 1}   -1.76{col 46}{space 3}0.084{col 54}{space 4}-.0295647{col 67}{space 3} .0019183
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0082685{col 26}{space 2} .0128408{col 37}{space 1}    0.64{col 46}{space 3}0.522{col 54}{space 4}-.0174546{col 67}{space 3} .0339916
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2296112{col 26}{space 2} .2523404{col 37}{space 1}    0.91{col 46}{space 3}0.367{col 54}{space 4}-.2758874{col 67}{space 3} .7351098
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.297884{col 26}{space 2} .5727667{col 37}{space 1}    2.27{col 46}{space 3}0.027{col 54}{space 4}  .150494{col 67}{space 3} 2.445273
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2420448{col 26}{space 2} .2546092{col 37}{space 1}    0.95{col 46}{space 3}0.346{col 54}{space 4}-.2679988{col 67}{space 3} .7520884
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1260467{col 26}{space 2} .2542311{col 37}{space 1}    0.50{col 46}{space 3}0.622{col 54}{space 4}-.3832394{col 67}{space 3} .6353327
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1246682{col 26}{space 2} .3024486{col 37}{space 1}    0.41{col 46}{space 3}0.682{col 54}{space 4}-.4812091{col 67}{space 3} .7305455
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1851672{col 26}{space 2} .2672794{col 37}{space 1}    0.69{col 46}{space 3}0.491{col 54}{space 4}-.3502577{col 67}{space 3} .7205922
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1488511{col 26}{space 2} .2624982{col 37}{space 1}    0.57{col 46}{space 3}0.573{col 54}{space 4} -.376996{col 67}{space 3} .6746981
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3517181{col 26}{space 2}  .244437{col 37}{space 1}    1.44{col 46}{space 3}0.156{col 54}{space 4} -.137948{col 67}{space 3} .8413842
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3257917{col 26}{space 2} .2564173{col 37}{space 1}    1.27{col 46}{space 3}0.209{col 54}{space 4}-.1878739{col 67}{space 3} .8394574
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7729677{col 26}{space 2} .3614126{col 37}{space 1}    2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.037{col 54}{space 4} .0489713{col 67}{space 3} 1.496964
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model1_pfactors
{txt}
{com}. 
. regress abs_pure_salchange ///
>           i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.abs_pure_salchange_lag  ///
>           c.votechange_lag ///    
>           c.pervote_lag ///
>           c.sal_eco_lag ///
>           i.country , cluster(party)

{txt}Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(14, 56)         =  {res}     5.92
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1822
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 4.1296

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}abs_pure_s~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.629459{col 26}{space 2} .9161184{col 37}{space 1}    1.78{col 46}{space 3}0.081{col 54}{space 4}-.2057465{col 67}{space 3} 3.464665
{txt}abs_pure_s~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .098568{col 26}{space 2} .0520425{col 37}{space 1}    1.89{col 46}{space 3}0.063{col 54}{space 4}-.0056855{col 67}{space 3} .2028216
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0761794{col 26}{space 2} .0558624{col 37}{space 1}    1.36{col 46}{space 3}0.178{col 54}{space 4}-.0357263{col 67}{space 3} .1880852
{txt}{space 1}pervote_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0554747{col 26}{space 2} .0272386{col 37}{space 1}   -2.04{col 46}{space 3}0.046{col 54}{space 4}-.1100401{col 67}{space 3}-.0009094
{txt}{space 1}sal_eco_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.057524{col 26}{space 2} .0402743{col 37}{space 1}   -1.43{col 46}{space 3}0.159{col 54}{space 4}-.1382032{col 67}{space 3} .0231552
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1821409{col 26}{space 2} 1.657643{col 37}{space 1}   -0.11{col 46}{space 3}0.913{col 54}{space 4}-3.502799{col 67}{space 3} 3.138517
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9648583{col 26}{space 2}  2.08462{col 37}{space 1}    0.46{col 46}{space 3}0.645{col 54}{space 4}-3.211137{col 67}{space 3} 5.140854
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.091801{col 26}{space 2} 1.516734{col 37}{space 1}   -1.38{col 46}{space 3}0.173{col 54}{space 4}-5.130185{col 67}{space 3}  .946583
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.133974{col 26}{space 2} 1.630769{col 37}{space 1}   -1.92{col 46}{space 3}0.060{col 54}{space 4}-6.400797{col 67}{space 3} .1328496
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.038374{col 26}{space 2} 1.422087{col 37}{space 1}   -0.73{col 46}{space 3}0.468{col 54}{space 4}-3.887157{col 67}{space 3} 1.810409
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.521931{col 26}{space 2} 1.661171{col 37}{space 1}   -0.92{col 46}{space 3}0.364{col 54}{space 4}-4.849656{col 67}{space 3} 1.805794
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9984876{col 26}{space 2} 2.287573{col 37}{space 1}    0.44{col 46}{space 3}0.664{col 54}{space 4}-3.584071{col 67}{space 3} 5.581047
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.050217{col 26}{space 2}  1.52412{col 37}{space 1}   -2.00{col 46}{space 3}0.050{col 54}{space 4}-6.103395{col 67}{space 3} .0029619
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7079381{col 26}{space 2} 1.404002{col 37}{space 1}   -0.50{col 46}{space 3}0.616{col 54}{space 4}-3.520492{col 67}{space 3} 2.104616
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 6.508287{col 26}{space 2} 2.302009{col 37}{space 1}    2.83{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4} 1.896808{col 67}{space 3} 11.11977
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model2_pfactors
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab model1_pfactors model2_pfactors  using "Appendix_G_1.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 scalar(ll) nogaps
{res}{txt}(note: file Appendix_G_1.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Appendix_G_1.rtf"'})

{com}. 
.         
. regress pure_polchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##c.pervote_lag ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##c.sal_eco_lag ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_polchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///     
>           c.unemp_change ///
>           i.country ,cluster(party)               
{p 0 6 2}{txt}note: systemic_shift_ln omitted because of collinearity{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: systemic_shift_ln omitted because of collinearity{p_end}

Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(21, 56)         =  {res}    11.67
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.2988
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 1.3562

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_polch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1414632{col 26}{space 2} .2399722{col 37}{space 1}    0.59{col 46}{space 3}0.558{col 54}{space 4}-.3392589{col 67}{space 3} .6221853
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0668404{col 26}{space 2} .1507421{col 37}{space 1}   -0.44{col 46}{space 3}0.659{col 54}{space 4}-.3688132{col 67}{space 3} .2351323
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4763876{col 26}{space 2} .1630163{col 37}{space 1}    2.92{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} .1498266{col 67}{space 3} .8029486
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 1}pervote_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.010604{col 26}{space 2} .0064355{col 37}{space 1}   -1.65{col 46}{space 3}0.105{col 54}{space 4}-.0234958{col 67}{space 3} .0022878
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
{space 1}pervote_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0161056{col 26}{space 2} .0054359{col 37}{space 1}   -2.96{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4}-.0269949{col 67}{space 3}-.0052162
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 1}sal_eco_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0112059{col 26}{space 2} .0098556{col 37}{space 1}   -1.14{col 46}{space 3}0.260{col 54}{space 4} -.030949{col 67}{space 3} .0085373
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
{space 1}sal_eco_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0012415{col 26}{space 2} .0069355{col 37}{space 1}   -0.18{col 46}{space 3}0.859{col 54}{space 4} -.015135{col 67}{space 3} .0126519
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1316341{col 26}{space 2} .5723499{col 37}{space 1}    0.23{col 46}{space 3}0.819{col 54}{space 4} -1.01492{col 67}{space 3} 1.278189
{txt}pure_polch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2666059{col 26}{space 2} .0506616{col 37}{space 1}   -5.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3680933{col 67}{space 3}-.1651185
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0039548{col 26}{space 2} .0183856{col 37}{space 1}   -0.22{col 46}{space 3}0.830{col 54}{space 4}-.0407856{col 67}{space 3} .0328759
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_polch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0430728{col 26}{space 2} .0138325{col 37}{space 1}    3.11{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0153629{col 67}{space 3} .0707827
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1081847{col 26}{space 2} .0369444{col 37}{space 1}    2.93{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} .0341761{col 67}{space 3} .1821932
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6086087{col 26}{space 2} .2737348{col 37}{space 1}   -2.22{col 46}{space 3}0.030{col 54}{space 4}-1.156965{col 67}{space 3} -.060252
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0581123{col 26}{space 2}  .517566{col 37}{space 1}    0.11{col 46}{space 3}0.911{col 54}{space 4}-.9786969{col 67}{space 3} 1.094922
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3503186{col 26}{space 2} .2806817{col 37}{space 1}   -1.25{col 46}{space 3}0.217{col 54}{space 4}-.9125917{col 67}{space 3} .2119545
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1982116{col 26}{space 2} .2766286{col 37}{space 1}   -0.72{col 46}{space 3}0.477{col 54}{space 4}-.7523653{col 67}{space 3} .3559421
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6238614{col 26}{space 2} .3404889{col 37}{space 1}   -1.83{col 46}{space 3}0.072{col 54}{space 4}-1.305943{col 67}{space 3} .0582199
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1342511{col 26}{space 2}  .275691{col 37}{space 1}   -0.49{col 46}{space 3}0.628{col 54}{space 4}-.6865265{col 67}{space 3} .4180243
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.165809{col 26}{space 2} .3087186{col 37}{space 1}   -3.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.784247{col 67}{space 3}-.5473715
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5349357{col 26}{space 2} .4569941{col 37}{space 1}   -1.17{col 46}{space 3}0.247{col 54}{space 4}-1.450405{col 67}{space 3} .3805335
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0661064{col 26}{space 2} .2399219{col 37}{space 1}   -0.28{col 46}{space 3}0.784{col 54}{space 4}-.5467278{col 67}{space 3} .4145149
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9802121{col 26}{space 2} .4295065{col 37}{space 1}    2.28{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4} .1198073{col 67}{space 3} 1.840617
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model1_pfactors
{txt}
{com}. 
. regress pure_salchange ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##i.leadercentred_d    ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##c.pervote_lag ///
>           c.systemic_shift_ln##c.sal_eco_lag ///
>           c.dmvpt    ///          
>           c.pure_salchange_lag##c.votechange_lag ///      
>           c.unemp_change ///
>           i.country, cluster(party)
{p 0 6 2}{txt}note: systemic_shift_ln omitted because of collinearity{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: systemic_shift_ln omitted because of collinearity{p_end}

Linear regression                               Number of obs     = {res}       261
                                                {txt}F(21, 56)         =  {res}     6.41
                                                {txt}Prob > F          = {res}    0.0000
                                                {txt}R-squared         = {res}    0.1518
                                                {txt}Root MSE          =    {res} 5.9694

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in party)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}pure_salch~e{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6644048{col 26}{space 2} .8469904{col 37}{space 1}    0.78{col 46}{space 3}0.436{col 54}{space 4}-1.032321{col 67}{space 3} 2.361131
{txt}1.leaderc~_d {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2703135{col 26}{space 2} .7737736{col 37}{space 1}    0.35{col 46}{space 3}0.728{col 54}{space 4}-1.279741{col 67}{space 3} 1.820368
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
leadercen~_d#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.423015{col 26}{space 2} .7483779{col 37}{space 1}   -1.90{col 46}{space 3}0.062{col 54}{space 4}-2.922196{col 67}{space 3} .0761659
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 1}pervote_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0704334{col 26}{space 2} .0360637{col 37}{space 1}    1.95{col 46}{space 3}0.056{col 54}{space 4}-.0018109{col 67}{space 3} .1426777
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
{space 1}pervote_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0136797{col 26}{space 2} .0258171{col 37}{space 1}    0.53{col 46}{space 3}0.598{col 54}{space 4}-.0380382{col 67}{space 3} .0653975
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
systemic_s~n {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 1}sal_eco_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .067534{col 26}{space 2} .0672456{col 37}{space 1}    1.00{col 46}{space 3}0.320{col 54}{space 4}-.0671751{col 67}{space 3} .2022431
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
systemic_s~n#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
{space 1}sal_eco_lag {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .012473{col 26}{space 2} .0207756{col 37}{space 1}    0.60{col 46}{space 3}0.551{col 54}{space 4}-.0291455{col 67}{space 3} .0540916
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}dmvpt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -4.32044{col 26}{space 2} 1.886565{col 37}{space 1}   -2.29{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4}-8.099683{col 67}{space 3}-.5411966
{txt}pure_salch~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2058176{col 26}{space 2} .0549257{col 37}{space 1}   -3.75{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.315847{col 67}{space 3}-.0957883
{txt}votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0935242{col 26}{space 2} .0783739{col 37}{space 1}    1.19{col 46}{space 3}0.238{col 54}{space 4}-.0634775{col 67}{space 3} .2505259
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
pure_salch~g#{c |}
{space 10}c. {c |}
votechange~g {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0042694{col 26}{space 2} .0156512{col 37}{space 1}    0.27{col 46}{space 3}0.786{col 54}{space 4}-.0270836{col 67}{space 3} .0356224
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
unemp_change {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .114807{col 26}{space 2} .1566009{col 37}{space 1}    0.73{col 46}{space 3}0.467{col 54}{space 4}-.1989023{col 67}{space 3} .4285163
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}country {c |}
{space 4}denmark  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.129064{col 26}{space 2} 2.029056{col 37}{space 1}    1.54{col 46}{space 3}0.129{col 54}{space 4}-.9356245{col 67}{space 3} 7.193752
{txt}{space 4}finland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.070486{col 26}{space 2} 2.271994{col 37}{space 1}    0.47{col 46}{space 3}0.639{col 54}{space 4}-3.480864{col 67}{space 3} 5.621837
{txt}{space 4}belgium  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.033379{col 26}{space 2}  2.06432{col 37}{space 1}    0.99{col 46}{space 3}0.329{col 54}{space 4}-2.101952{col 67}{space 3} 6.168709
{txt}netherlands  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.853752{col 26}{space 2} 2.022673{col 37}{space 1}    1.41{col 46}{space 3}0.164{col 54}{space 4}-1.198149{col 67}{space 3} 6.905654
{txt}{space 5}france  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.398534{col 26}{space 2} 1.916615{col 37}{space 1}    1.77{col 46}{space 3}0.082{col 54}{space 4}-.4409067{col 67}{space 3} 7.237976
{txt}{space 4}germany  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6803835{col 26}{space 2} 2.270592{col 37}{space 1}    0.30{col 46}{space 3}0.766{col 54}{space 4}-3.868159{col 67}{space 3} 5.228926
{txt}{space 4}austria  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.487071{col 26}{space 2} 2.599328{col 37}{space 1}   -1.73{col 46}{space 3}0.090{col 54}{space 4}-9.694151{col 67}{space 3} .7200094
{txt}united ki..  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.05358{col 26}{space 2} 2.009213{col 37}{space 1}    0.52{col 46}{space 3}0.602{col 54}{space 4}-2.971358{col 67}{space 3} 5.078518
{txt}{space 4}ireland  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5533312{col 26}{space 2} 1.871791{col 37}{space 1}    0.30{col 46}{space 3}0.769{col 54}{space 4}-3.196317{col 67}{space 3} 4.302979
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-7.095441{col 26}{space 2} 2.925464{col 37}{space 1}   -2.43{col 46}{space 3}0.019{col 54}{space 4}-12.95585{col 67}{space 3}-1.235032
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est sto model2_pfactors
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab  model1_pfactors  model2_pfactors  using "Appendix_G_2.rtf", replace label    ///
>                                                 star(+ 0.1 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) ///
>                                                 mtitles("Opinion-based policy change" "Emphasis-based policy change") ///
>                                                 scalar(ll) nogaps
{res}{txt}(note: file Appendix_G_2.rtf not found)
(output written to {browse  `"Appendix_G_2.rtf"'})

{com}. 
.                 
.                                         
. * Model 1
. gen x=_n in 1/2
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen effect=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen upper=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen lower=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. est restore model1_pfactors
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model1_pfactors:model1_pfactors} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred_d=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pervote_lag}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}17.57943 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:sal_eco_lag}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}26.95853 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pervote_lag}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}17.57943 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:sal_eco_lag}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}26.95853 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_polch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.2108984 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~n {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1751331{col 26}{space 2} .1372445{col 37}{space 1}   -1.28{col 46}{space 3}0.207{col 54}{space 4}-.4500668{col 67}{space 3} .0998006
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3012545{col 26}{space 2} .0888398{col 37}{space 1}    3.39{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .1232871{col 67}{space 3}  .479222
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. matrix b=r(b)
{txt}
{com}. matrix V=r(V)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list b
{res}
{txt}b[1,2]
     systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
               1.            2.
             _at           _at
r1 {res}    -.1751331      .3012545
{reset}
{com}. matrix list V
{res}
{txt}symmetric V[2,2]
                          systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
                                    1.            2.
                                  _at           _at
systemic_shift_ln:1._at {res}    .01883605
{txt}systemic_shift_ln:2._at {res}    .00007711     .00789251
{reset}
{com}. replace effect=b[1,1]                                     if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,1] + 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,1] - 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. replace effect=b[1,2]                                     if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,2] + 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,2] - 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. label define Hyp   1 "Activist-dominated party"  2 "Leader-dominated party"  
{txt}
{com}.                         
. label values x  Hyp
{txt}
{com}. sort x
{txt}
{com}. eclplot effect lower upper x in 1/2, ///
>         rplottype(rspike) ///
>         estopts(msymbol(circle) mcolor(black)) ///
>         ciopts(lcolor(black))   ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(0.8 2.2)) ///
>         xscale(range(-0.01 0.03)) ///
>     ylabel(1 2, valuelabel labsize(small) notick nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-0.50(0.1)0.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: Opinion-based policy change (Model 1)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Marginal effect",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(2) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         xline(0, lcolor(black)) ///
>         horizontal 
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. graph export figG1a.tif, replace  width(2400) 
{txt}(note: file figG1a.tif not found)
(file figG1a.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}.                                         
. drop x effect upper lower 
{txt}
{com}. matrix drop _all
{txt}
{com}. label drop Hyp          
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * Model 2
. gen x=_n in 1/2
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen effect=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen upper=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. gen lower=.
{txt}(261 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. est restore model2_pfactors
{txt}(results {stata estimates replay model2_pfactors:model2_pfactors} are active now)

{com}. margins, dydx(systemic_shift_ln) at((mean) _continuous (base) _factor leadercentred_d=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       261
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:systemic_shift_ln}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pervote_lag}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}17.57943 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:sal_eco_lag}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}26.95853 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:systemic_s~n}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}.010557 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:leadercentred_d}{space 1}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pervote_lag}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}17.57943 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:sal_eco_lag}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}26.95853 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:dmvpt}{space 11}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0536904 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:pure_salch~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.503697 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:votechange~g}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}-.246341 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:unemp_change}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0578545 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:country}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 9}11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}systemic_s~n {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.241141{col 26}{space 2} .5513047{col 37}{space 1}    2.25{col 46}{space 3}0.028{col 54}{space 4} .1367445{col 67}{space 3} 2.345537
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1818746{col 26}{space 2} .4280977{col 37}{space 1}   -0.42{col 46}{space 3}0.673{col 54}{space 4}-1.039457{col 67}{space 3} .6757082
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. matrix b=r(b)
{txt}
{com}. matrix V=r(V)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list b
{res}
{txt}b[1,2]
     systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
               1.            2.
             _at           _at
r1 {res}    1.2411406     -.1818746
{reset}
{com}. matrix list V
{res}
{txt}symmetric V[2,2]
                          systemic_~n:  systemic_~n:
                                    1.            2.
                                  _at           _at
systemic_shift_ln:1._at {res}    .30393691
{txt}systemic_shift_ln:2._at {res}   -.03643244     .18326766
{reset}
{com}. replace effect=b[1,1]                                     if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,1] + 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,1] - 1.96*sqrt(V[1,1]) if x==1
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. replace effect=b[1,2]                                     if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace upper=b[1,2] + 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace lower=b[1,2] - 1.96*sqrt(V[2,2]) if x==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. label define Hyp   1 "Activist-dominated party"  2 "Leader-dominated party"  
{txt}
{com}.                         
. label values x  Hyp
{txt}
{com}. sort x
{txt}
{com}. eclplot effect lower upper x in 1/2, ///
>         rplottype(rspike) ///
>         estopts(msymbol(circle) mcolor(black)) ///
>         ciopts(lcolor(black))   ///
>         legend(off) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) ///
>         yscale(range(0.8 2.2)) ///
>         xscale(range(-2.5 2.5)) ///
>     ylabel(1 2, valuelabel labsize(small) notick nogrid) ///
>         xlabel(-2.5(0.5)2.5, labsize(small) ) ///
>         title("DV: Emphasis-based policy change (Model 2)",color(black)) ///
>         ytitle("") ///
>         xtitle("Marginal effect",size(small)) ///
>         ysize(2) ///
>         xsize(4) ///
>         xline(0, lcolor(black)) ///
>         horizontal 
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. graph export figG1b.tif, replace  width(2400) 
{txt}(note: file figG1b.tif not found)
(file figG1b.tif written in TIFF format)

{com}.                                         
. drop x effect upper lower 
{txt}
{com}. matrix drop _all
{txt}
{com}. label drop Hyp  
{txt}
{com}. 
. log close
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}V:\Demand & Supply\Party policy change\Data\log_analysis.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res}19 May 2017, 16:20:31
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}